A soccer player never gets two Yellow Cards (YCs) in the same
match, and gets one YC with probability p, independently of other
matches. When he accumulates two YCs, he is suspended for one
match, but then his YC count reverts to zero. Thus, at the beginning
of any match, he is in one of three states, 0, 1, 2 according to the
current number of YCs. Set this up as a Markov chain, and find the
long-run proportion of matches he misses through suspension.
The manager always selects him when he is available; if there are
three intervening matches before the game against Brazil, find the
chance he is not suspended for that match, given his current status.