4. (13 points) Download the “Quarterly GDP Data by State” Excel file from the class D2L site. Find your name in the table below. You will use the data from that state for this problem (you may delete the other columns from the Excel file).
My assigned state is Iowa, I have hidden the other states data in the attached excel data file.
a. Create the following forecasts: a 4-period moving average forecast, an exponential smoothing forecast with alpha=0.2, and a linear trend forecast for your data.
b. Calculate the MSE and MAD for each.
c. Plot the original series, and each of the forecasts.
d. Create forecasts for 2017 Q1, 2017 Q2, 2017 Q3 and 2017 Q4 using each of these three techniques. If you had to choose one of these, which would you choose and why?
e. Given your data, and this time period, would you prefer to try some other type of forecast, or modify the data in some way? (You must explain your answer for full credit.)
Mid term 2 Q 4 4. (13 points) Download the “Quarterly GDP Data by State” Excel file from the class D2L site. Find your name in the table below. You will use the data from that state for this problem (you may delete the other columns from the Excel file). My assigned state is Iowa, I have hidden the other states data in the attached excel data file. a. Create the following forecasts: a 4-period moving average forecast, an exponential smoothing forecast with alpha=0.2, and a linear trend forecast for your data. b. Calculate the MSE and MAD for each. c. Plot the original series, and each of the forecasts. d. Create forecasts for 2017 Q1, 2017 Q2, 2017 Q3 and 2017 Q4 using each of these three techniques. If you had to choose one of these, which would you choose and why? e. Given your data, and this time period, would you prefer to try some other type of forecast, or modify the data in some way? (You must explain your answer for full credit.)