Using the five most recent years and the "Forecasting Template" spreadsheet provided, complete the...

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Using the five most recent years and the "Forecasting Template" spreadsheet provided, complete the forecasts for the next two periods and provide updated Totals and Average Bias, median absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for all four charts. Provide a Summary Page in Excel with a 500-750 word report on the analysis completed by the forecasting models. Include review of error, recommendations on the best forecasting model to use, and analysis of the business trend data for new business startup in the United States.

Online Faculty Development Peer Support Review Process Change Proposal Forecasting Case Study: New Business Planning Important Note: Students must access the “Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy” page of the Bureau of Labor Statistics website in order to complete this assignment. Scenario The generation of new business start-up is vital to the growth of the economy as it builds new jobs and creates new opportunities for the community. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks new business development and jobs created on the website for the United States Department of Labor. You have been tasked with forecasting economic growth and decline patterns for new businesses in the United States. Forecasting Access the “Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy” page of the Bureau of Labor Statistics website. Under the "Business establishment age" heading, the first chart reviews new businesses less than 1 year old during the March 1994 to March 2015 period. Click on the [Chart data] link below the chart: Once the chart data window opens, you will see the number of establishments that are less than 1 year old for each year during this period: Using the five most recent years and the "Forecasting Template" spreadsheet provided, complete the forecasts for the next two periods and provide updated Totals and Average Bias, median absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for all four charts. Provide a Summary Page in Excel with a 500-750 word report on the analysis completed by the forecasting models. Include review of error, recommendations on the best forecasting model to use, and analysis of the business trend data for new business startup in the United States. 2

unifolks_636467369865274008_113947_1.xlsx unifolks_636467369865274008_113947_2.docx

David · Accepted Answer

Summary
	I want to analyze the number of establishments less than 1 year old for in the United States for the years 2011 – 2015. There is a rising trend observed in number of establishments less than 1 year old for in the United States for the years 2011 – 2015. 
 I make use of four methods of forecasting namely 2 year Moving average, 3 year Moving average, exponential smoothing and trend adjusted exponential smoothing. Mean absolute deviation commonly known as MAD, mean square error which is commonly known as a MSE and mean absolute percentage error which is commonly known as MAPE measures of biasness in the data. The best method is selected on the basis of value of this biasness. The methods with the least value of mean absolute deviation or mean square error or mean absolute percentage error is considered as the best method of forecasting the data.
The formula for mean absolute deviation (MAD) is given by sum (At-Ft)/n. the formula for mean square error (MSE) is given by sum(At-Ft)^2/n. The formula for mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is given by (100/n)*sum(|(At-Ft)/At|). 
The value of mean absolute deviation for 2 year Moving average, 3 year moving average, exponential smoothing and trend adjusted exponential smoothing is 27453.5, 39736.17, 37066.43 and 23524.6 respectively. The value of mean square error for 2 year Moving average, 3 year moving average, exponential smoothing and trend adjusted exponential smoothing is 810860743.4, 1581048559, 1791041292, and 797385436.9 respectively. The value of mean absolute percentage error for 2 year Moving average, 3 year moving average, exponential smoothing and trend adjusted exponential smoothing is 04.17%, 05.97%, 05.70% and 03.65% respectively. 
The formula for moving average is given by F(t+1) = sum(At/n); t = 1, 2, .., n. the formula for exponential smoothing ES; F(t+1) = Ft + a(At – Ft). The forecast regarding number of establishments less than 1 year old for in the United States using trend adjusted exponential smoothing for the year 2016 and 2017 is 687574.7 and 692267.8. This is the most reliable forecast. Forecast for year 2016 and 2017 using 2 year Moving average MA(2) is 665926 and 672499. Forecast for year 2016 and 2017 using 3 year Moving average MA(3) is 653643.333 and 661831.778. The forecast regarding number of establishments less than 1 year old for in the United States using exponential smoothing for the year 2016 is 638168.652
The least value of MAD,

Using the five most recent years and the "Forecasting Template" spreadsheet provided, complete the forecasts for the next two periods and provide updated Totals and Average Bias, median absolute...

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