Term PROJECT: · You are expected to turn in one submission per team. Teamwork is essential. · Assign a leader for your team, send me the name. · Failure of any member to work fairly with the team...

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Term PROJECT: · You are expected to turn in one submission per team. Teamwork is essential. · Assign a leader for your team, send me the name. · Failure of any member to work fairly with the team should be raised timely. · This is a project, not a homework assignment! You are expected to turn in a report that highlight followed procedure, assumptions, results, discussion, etc. · Download the software from BayesFusion You project is to quantitatively evaluate the risk involved in a centrifugal compressor system. Compressor is one of the most used rotating equipment in industry. It is usually equipped with many protective equipment to ensure its reliability and safe operation. The schematic below shows a typical compressor layout with common safety systems. · ESDV is an emergency shutdown valve intended to shutdown the inlet and outlet of the compressor in case of an emergency. · SBDV is a safety blowdown valve intended to release pressurized systems in case of an emergency to reduce risks in a hazardous situation. · PSV is a pressure safety valve intended to depressurize the compressor. · PCV is a pressure control valve to regulate pressure Your assignment is to quantify the risk of (a) compressor overpressure and (b) compressor damage using probabilistic graphic method (i.e. Bayesian network), which is influenced by the following factors: 1. Overpressure in the compressor 2. Failure of anti-surge valve 3. Sizing and failure of the pressure safety valve 4. Liquid carryover 5. Gas seal failure 6. Lube oil system failure 7. Foreign object entry 8. Change of operating conditions 9. Thrust bearing failure 10. Coincident mechanical & acoustic frequency Under each of the above factors, sub-causal factors (parent nodes) are present. Some of the factors are modeled using normal distribution with given mean value and standard deviation, while others are manual-entry variables. The continuous variables are discretized to two conditions based on ranges provided in the table. The ranges will help you provide evidence (such as when you have evidence on the failure of lube oil system) as they emerge. Category Sub-causal Factor Type Mean Standard Deviation Range of "Yes State" (probability of Yes) Range of "No" state (probability of No) Overpressure in compressor (OP) Downstream blockage Normal distribution 0.08 0.1 0.01-0.025 0.025-.99 Failure of high pressure shutdown ESDV Normal distribution 0.15 0.1 0.01-0.06 0.06-0.99 Failure of anti-surge valve (CD) Mechanical Failure Normal distribution 1.16e-4 0.0001 1e-6 – 3e-6 3e-6 – 0.001 Electronic Failures TBD Sizing and failure of PSV (OP) (CD) PSV failure Normal distribution 0.005 0.001 0.001-0.0012 0.0012-0.99 PSV undersized Normal distribution 0.05 0.1 0.01-0.02 0.02-0.99 Liquid carryover (CD) Suction demister design inadequate Normal distribution 0.15 0.01 0.01-0.06 0.06-0.99 Liquid slugs in inlet gas Normal distribution 0.15 0.1 0.01-0.06 0.045-0.99 Failure of control system Normal distribution 0.12 0.1 0.01-0.045 0.06-0.99 Failure of high liquid level trip Normal distribution 0.09 0.01 0.01-0.025 0.025-0.99 Failure of operator action TBD Gas seal failure (CD) Liquid carryover Normal distribution Average of sub-factors in liquid carryover 0.1 0.01-0.3 0.3-0.99 Excessive vibration Normal distribution 0.0004 0.01 1e-4 – 8e-4 8e-4 – 0.99 Lube oil system failure (CD) Failure of lube oil system Normal distribution 0.006 0.1 0.001-0.008 0.008-0.99 Failure of operator action TBD Factors contributing to compressor damage directly is labeled (CD), while (OP) stands for compressor overpressure. Work with your team on the following tasks: (1) Build the Bayesian network for the system using GeNIe Software (2) Justify your distribution selection of the “TBD” nodes (3) Comment on the results of the risk of over pressure and compressor damage (4) You suspect as a team that the suction scrubber and demister design are inadequate, what would be the probability of liquid carryover and compressor damage. (5) Given an evidence that the compressor is overpressured, what is the posterior probability of a compressor's damage. Comment on the results. (6) Run three distinct scenarios that will help you understand the risk involved in the operation/design of compressors. (7) (optional but highlight recommended) write a summary at the beginning of the report on compressors safety and reliability data.