Test for the fourth week Document: Assessment Task Hypothesis_Regression_Time series index numbers sem2-18.doc Page 1 of 5 Assessment task for Hypothesis, Regression Time series/ Index Numbers sem...

Assessment Task Hypothesis_Regression


Test for the fourth week Document: Assessment Task Hypothesis_Regression_Time series index numbers sem2-18.doc Page 1 of 5 Assessment task for Hypothesis, Regression Time series/ Index Numbers sem 2 2018 Print off and complete before handing in Total 50 marks Firstly fill in section A (2 marks) Name : Your student number is S You will make some numbers using your student number The first number, to be used in question 1 and 5, is the first two digits of your student number Now referred as A The second number will also be used in Question 1 and 5. It is made from the last two digits in your student number Now referred as B The Third number will be used Question 2 and 5, and is made using the third and fourth digits of your student number Now referred as C The Fourth number will also be used Question 5, and is made using the Fourth and fifth digits of your student number Now referred as D The Fourth number will be used Question 5, and is made using the first and sixth digits of your student number Now referred as E Eight numbers to be used in Question 3 and 4 will be made from the digits 1 First Digit 1 Second Digit 1 Third Digit 1 Fourth Digit 1 Fifth Digit 1 Sixth Digit 1 Seventh Digit And also Your age List the 8 numbers you will be using in the box below, And this will be referred to as data set F Question 1 (11 marks) If your student number was s 3246579, Age is 23 date of birth 1993 Then your eight numbers for set F would be 13 , 12 , 14 , 16 ,15 , 17, 19, and 23 Document: Assessment Task Hypothesis_Regression_Time series index numbers sem2-18.doc Page 2 of 5 Question 1 (6 marks) The Waiting time for a Pizza order is supposed to be no more than 10 minutes. Some complaints have been received that the orders are in fact taking longer than the claimed 10 minutes. A batch of B orders was timed and found to have an average order time of 10.9 minutes and a sample standard deviation of (A ÷ 40 ) minutes. Prepare a hypothesis test to test whether the orders are taking longer than 10 minutes. Test at 1% significance using critical value. Show all 6 steps. Question 2 (5 marks) The proportion of people who love dogs is known to be 75 % Australia wide. A town in far north Queensland is often different in many aspects to the rest of Australia. When C families were sampled the proportion who loved dogs was 68%. (If ‘C’ happens to be zero, you may assume C to be 10). Test whether this town is significantly different to the rest of Australia, given the probability of making a type 1 error is 5% using p-value method. Document: Assessment Task Hypothesis_Regression_Time series index numbers sem2-18.doc Page 3 of 5 Question 3 Age is one of the key factors used to predict the market value of a car. The Age in years and current market value of a certain type of car is given below: Place your data set F ( in column 2 market value). Starting from the 1 in descending order ( from the largest number to smallest number). Age Market value ($’000) F 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Ʃ= Ʃ= a) Choose X and Y and calculate the correlation coefficient r. Show all calculations 4 MARKS b) Interpret the coefficient of determination. 1 mark c) Calculate bo and b1. Set up the simple linear regression equation. 3 marks d) Interpret the coefficients 2 marks e) Predict the market value of the car if it is 10 years old. 1 mark ( 4+1+3+2+1= 11 marks) Document: Assessment Task Hypothesis_Regression_Time series index numbers sem2-18.doc Page 4 of 5 Question 4 The following table represents the number of enrolments in a first year business statistics course over an eight year period: Place your data set F ) starting from 1 in descending order (from the largest number to smallest number). Year Enrolments F MA (4year) Errors for the MA (4year) predictions Error 2 MA(4 year) 1 ------ 2 ------ 3 ------ 4 ------ 5 6 7 8 I. Calculate the 4 year Moving Average forecast and complete MA (4 year) column above II. What is the forecast for year 9? III. Calculate the Errors for MA ( 4 year) IV. Calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for MA (4year) V. Calculate Error2 for MA ( 4 year). VI. Calculate the MSE (Mean Square of Errors ) for MA (4year) VII. Graph your first two table columns (Year and enrolments) as a time series below and describe the plot ( Be mindful of trend, and cyclic variation ( if any) )