Do a fundamental, cash flow based valuation of Greif, Inc. and estimate its current share price.Please submit an Excel file showing the valuation analysis.
Below are some URLs which will help in achieving the results -
1.
Quote of Greif, Inc. -
https://www.nyse.com/quote/XNYS:GEF
2.
Reports -
https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=GEF&action=getcompany
Attached is a valuation analysis report of a company. You can utilize this report in doing the same for
Greif, Inc.
HW Assignment Do a fundamental, cash flow based valuation of Greif, Inc. and estimate its current share price. Please submit an Excel file showing the valuation analysis. Below are some URLs which will help in achieving the results - 1. Quote of Greif, Inc. - https://www.nyse.com/quote/XNYS:GEF 2. Reports - https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=GEF&action=getcompany Below is a valuation analysis report of a company. You can utilize this report in doing the same for Greif, Inc. HGV_Balsheet Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. BALANCE SHEETS, 2017-2021 Assets20212020201920182017 Cash and Short-Term Investments432,000,000428,000,00067,000,000108,000,000246,000,000 Receivables302,000,000119,000,000174,000,000153,000,000112,000,000 Inventories - Total1,240,000,000702,000,000558,000,000527,000,000509,000,000 Other Current Assets280,000,00087,000,00068,000,00095,000,00044,000,000 Total Current Assets2,254,000,0001,336,000,000867,000,000883,000,000911,000,000 Property, Plant, and Equipment, Gross981,000,000684,000,000948,000,000642,000,000303,000,000 Depreciation, Depletion, and Amortization (Accumulated)-155,000,000-131,000,000-110,000,000-83,000,000-65,000,000 Property, Plant, and Equipment, Net826,000,000553,000,000838,000,000559,000,000238,000,000 Intangibles1,441,000,00081,000,00089,000,00081,000,00072,000,000 Other Assets3,487,000,0001,164,000,0001,285,000,0001,230,000,0001,163,000,000 Total Assets8,008,000,0003,134,000,0003,079,000,0002,753,000,0002,384,000,000 Liabilities20212020201920182017 Accounts Payable207,000,00068,000,00083,000,000107,000,00097,000,000 Accrued Expense497,000,000237,000,000264,000,000190,000,000155,000,000 Other Current Liabilities56,000,00014,000,00027,000,000128,000,000191,000,000 Debt4,241,000,0001,925,000,0001,575,000,0001,363,000,0001,065,000,000 Deferred Taxes670,000,000137,000,000259,000,000254,000,000249,000,000 Minority Interest----- Other Liabilities349,000,000379,000,000301,000,00095,000,000109,000,000 Equity Common Stock1,000,0001,000,0001,000,0001,000,0001,000,000 Capital Surplus1,630,000,000192,000,000179,000,000174,000,000162,000,000 Retained Earnings357,000,000181,000,000390,000,000441,000,000355,000,000 Less: Treasury Stock - Total Dollar Amount----- Total stockholders equity1,988,000,000374,000,000570,000,000616,000,000518,000,000 Total Liabilities & Equity8,008,000,0003,134,000,0003,079,000,0002,753,000,0002,384,000,000 COMMON SHARES OUTSTANDING (million)119.9040085.2050185.535594.5580999.1363 119,904,00185,205,01085,535,50094,558,09099,136,300 Balance sheet--historical ratios Assets20212020201920182017 Cash and Short-Term Investments Receivables/Sales12.93%13.31%9.47%7.65%6.55% Inventories/Sales53.10%78.52%30.36%26.36%29.75% Other Current Assets/Sales11.99%9.73%3.70%4.75%2.57% Operating CA/Sales96.53%149.44%47.17%44.17%53.24% Property, Plant, Equipment, Gross/Sales42.01%76.51%51.58%32.12%17.71% Annual depreciation/PPE12.84%6.58%5.38%5.61%9.57% Property, Plant, Equipment, Net/Sales35.37%61.86%41.92%30.41%13.91% Other Assets/Sales149.34%130.20%69.91%61.53%67.97% Other Assets, growth rate since 191131.59% Liabilities Accounts Payable/Sales8.87%7.61%4.52%5.35%5.67% Accrued Expense/Sales21.28%26.51%14.36%9.50%9.06% Other Current Liabilities/Sales2.40%1.57%1.47%6.40%11.16% Operating CL/Sales32.55%35.68%20.35%21.26%25.89% Debt Debt/equity213.33%514.71%276%221.27%205.60% Debt/assets52.96%61.42%51.15%49.51%44.67% Other Liabilities/Sales14.95%42.39%16.38%4.75%6.37% Other Liabilities, growth rate since 191133.77% Balance sheet--model parameters ASSETS Cash and Short-Term Investments432,000,000 Receivables/Sales9.98% Inventories/Sales43.62% Other Current Assets/Sales6.55% Operating CA/Sales78.11% Property, Plant, Equipment, Gross2,295,000,000 Accrued depreciation1,469,000,000 Property, Plant, Equipment, Net/Sales35.37% Other Assets, annual growth rate31.59% LIABILITIES Accounts Payable/Sales6.40% Accrued Expense/Sales16.14% Other Current Liabilities/Sales4.60% Debt/Assets52.96% Deferred taxes132,766,700 Minority Interest- Other Liabilities, annual growth rate33.77% EQUITY Common Stock1,000,000 Capital Surplus1,630,000,000 Retained Earnings1,543,000,000 Treasury Stock - Total Dollar Amount- Payout to equity20212020201920182017 Cash dividends00000 Minus increase in common stock and capital surplus-1,438,000,000-13,000,000-5,000,000-12,000,000-24,000,000 Plus increase in treasury stock at cost----- Total paid out to equity-1,438,000,000-13,000,000-5,000,000-12,000,000-24,000,000 HGV_IncomeStat Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. INCOME STATEMENTS, 2017-2020COMMON SIZE I/S 2021202020192018201720212020201920182017Average Sales2,335,000,000894,000,0001,838,000,0001,999,000,0001,711,000,000Sales Cost of Goods Sold1,560,000,000786,000,0001,361,000,0001,412,000,0001,241,000,000Cost of Goods Sold66.81%87.92%74.05%70.64%72.53%74.39% Selling, General, and Administrative Expense151,000,00092,000,000111,000,000117,000,000104,000,000Selling, General, and Administrative Expense6.47%10.29%6.04%5.85%6.08%6.95% Operating Income Before Depreciation624,000,00016,000,000366,000,000470,000,000366,000,000Operating Income Before Depreciation26.72%1.79%19.91%23.51%21.39%18.67% Unusual Expense (Income)108,000,000216,000,000000Unusual Expense (Income)4.63%24.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%5.76% Depreciation and Amortization126,000,00045,000,00051,000,00036,000,00029,000,000Depreciation and Amortization5.40%5.03%2.77%1.80%1.69%3.34% Interest Expense-95,000,000-38,000,000-39,000,000-30,000,000-26,000,000Interest Expense-4.07%-4.25%-2.12%-1.50%-1.52%-2.69% Nonoperating Income (Expense) and Special Items-26,000,0003,000,000-3,000,000-1,000,0000Nonoperating Income (Expense) and Special Items-1.11%0.34%-0.16%-0.05%0.00%-0.20% Acquisition and integration-related expense00000Acquisition and integration-related expense0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% Pretax Income269,000,000-280,000,000273,000,000403,000,000311,000,000Pretax Income11.52%-31.32%14.85%20.16%18.18%6.68% Income Taxes - Total93000000-79,000,00057,000,000109,000,000116,000,000Income Taxes - Total3.98%-8.84%3.10%5.45%6.78%2.10% Minority Interest00000Minority Interest0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% Income Before Extraordinary Items176,000,000-201,000,000216,000,000294,000,000195,000,000Income Before Extraordinary Items7.54%-22.48%11.75%14.71%11.40%4.58% Extraordinary Items and Discontinued Operations0004,000,000132,000,000Extraordinary Items and Discontinued Operations0.00%0.00%0.00%0.20%7.71%1.58% Net Income (Loss)176,000,000-201,000,000216,000,000298,000,000327,000,000Net Income (Loss)7.54%-22.48%11.75%14.91%19.11%6.17% Cash Dividends Retained176,000,000-201,000,000216,000,000298,000,000327,000,000 Dividends per share0.000.000.000.000.00 Weighted average shares outstanding - basic100,000,00085,000,00089,000,00097,000,00099,000,000 Weighted average shares outstanding - diluted101,000,00085,000,00089,000,00098,000,000100,000,000 Earnings Per Share (Primary) - Excluding Extraordinary Items1.76-2.362.433.031.97 Earnings Per Share (Primary) - Including Extraordinary Items1.76-2.362.433.073.30 Common Shares Used to Calculate Primary EPS10000000085000000890000009700000099000000 Earnings Per Share (Fully Diluted) - Excluding Extraordinary Items1.74-2.362.433.001.95 Earnings Per Share (Fully Diluted) - Including Extraordinary Items1.74-2.362.433.043.27 Profit and loss historical ratios20212020201920182017 COGS/Sales66.81%87.92%74.05%70.64%72.53% SG&A/Sales6.47%10.29%6.04%5.85%6.08% Total costs/Sales (sum of above items)73.28%98.21%80.09%76.49%78.61% Unusual Expense (Income)/ Sales4.63%24.16%0.00%0.00%0.00% Depreciation/Gross fixed assets12.84%6.58%5.38%5.61%9.57% Interest expense/Average debt3.02%-4.51%3.88%8.98% Incomes Taxes/Pretax Income34.57%28.21%20.88%27.05%37.30% Minority Interest/(Pretax - Taxes)0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% Dividends/Net Income0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% Profit and loss--model parameters COGS/Sales74.39% SG&A/Sales6.95% Unusual Expense (Income)/ Sales5.76% Depreciation/Gross fixed assets12.84% Interest rate2.84% Tax rate34.57% Minority Interest/(Pretax - Taxes)0.00% Dividend growth0.00% Stock price, end-December 202152.11 P/E multiple, trailing29.61 HGV_SalesGrowth Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Analysis of Sales 2017-2021 YearTotal Sales ($ m)Year-on -year Growth 20171,711 20181,99916.83% 20191,838-8.05% 2020894-51.36% 20212,335161.19% Compound GR 2017-20216.42% HGV_SalesGrowth Total Sales ($ m) Year-on -year Growth Sales Analysis Fixed Inv Fixed Inv 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 HGV : Net Plant, Property and Equipment to Sales 0.3537473233 0.6185682327 0.4192096048 0.3041349293 0.1390999416 HGV EPS HGV: EARNINGS PER SHARE VERSUS EARNINGS YearEarnings per shareProfits after taxes 20171.97327000000.00 20183.03298000000.00 20192.43216000000.00 2020-2.36-201000000.00 20211.92176000000.00 Compound growth-0.64%-14.35% HGV EPS Earnings per share Profits after taxes Year EPS Profits after taxes HGV: EPS versus Profits HGV Beta COMPUTING THE BETA FOR HGV Uses monthly data, Jan. 2017 - Dec. 2021 Beta2.2384SLOPE(G6:G64,C6:C64) Intercept-0.0182520953 DateSP500 CloseSP500 ReturnDateHGV CloseHGV Return Jan-172278.870Jan-1729.33 Feb-172363.6403.65%Feb-1729.942.06% Mar-172362.720-0.04%Mar-1728.66-4.37% Apr-172384.2000.91%Apr-1733.4715.51% May-172411.8001.15%May-1735.776.65% Jun-172423.4100.48%Jun-1736.060.81% Jul-172470.3001.92%Jul-1736.761.92% Aug-172471.6500.05%Aug-1736.25-1.40% Sep-172519.3601.91%Sep-1738.636.36% Oct-172575.2602.19%Oct-1740.965.86% Nov-172584.8400.37%Nov-1739.97-2.45% Dec-172673.6103.38%Dec-1741.954.83% Jan-182823.8105.47%Jan-1844.976.95% Feb-182713.830-3.97%Feb-1843.16-4.11% Mar-182640.870-2.73%Mar-1843.02-0.32% Apr-182648.0500.27%Apr-1843.00-0.05% May-182705.2702.14%May-1839.76-7.83% Jun-182718.3700.48%Jun-1834.70-13.61% Jul-182816.2903.54%Jul-1834.59-0.32% Aug-182901.5202.98%Aug-1832.66-5.74% Sep-182913.9800.43%Sep-1833.101.34% Oct-182711.740-7.19%Oct-1826.87-20.85% Nov-182760.1701.77%Nov-1832.0617.66% Dec-182506.850-9.63%Dec-1826.39-19.46% Jan-192704.1007.57%Jan-1930.3413.95% Feb-192784.4902.93%Feb-1931.794.67% Mar-192834.4001.78%Mar-1930.85-3.00% Apr-192945.8303.86%Apr-1932.043.78% May-192752.060-6.80%May-1925.42-23.14% Jun-192941.7606.67%Jun-1931.8222.46% Jul-192980.3801.30%Jul-1932.702.73% Aug-192926.460-1.83%Aug-1933.773.22% Sep-192976.7401.70%Sep-1932.00-5.38% Oct-193037.5602.02%Oct-1934.738.19% Nov-193140.9803.35%Nov-1934.63-0.29% Dec-193230.7802.82%Dec-1934.39-0.70% Jan-203,225.52-0.16%Jan-2031.91-7.48% Feb-202954.220-8.79%Feb-2026.66-17.98% Mar-202584.590-13.37%Mar-2015.77-52.51% Apr-202912.43011.94%Apr-2020.6026.72% May-203044.3104.43%May-2021.544.46% Jun-203100.2901.82%Jun-2019.55-9.69% Jul-203271.1205.36%Jul-2020.303.76% Aug-203500.3106.77%Aug-2021.917.63% Sep-203363.000-4.00%Sep-2020.98-4.34% Oct-203269.960-2.81%Oct-2020.60-1.83% Nov-203621.63010.21%Nov-2027.7429.76% Dec-203756.0703.64%Dec-2031.3512.23% Jan-213714.240-1.12%Jan-2129.72-5.34% Feb-213811.1502.58%Feb-2139.5128.47% Mar-213972.8904.16%Mar-2137.49-5.25% Apr-214181.1705.11%Apr-2144.5617.28% May-214204.1100.55%May-2145.732.59% Jun-214297.5002.20%Jun-2141.39-9.97% Jul-214395.2602.25%Jul-2140.67-1.75% Aug-214522.6802.86%Aug-2143.697.16% Sep-214307.540-4.87%Sep-2147.578.51% Oct-214605.3806.69%Oct-2150.285.54% Nov-214567.000-0.84%Nov-2147.50-5.69% Dec-214766.1804.27%Dec-2152.119.26% HGV Beta HGV Return HGV Return SP500 Return Computing the Beta for HGV using monthly price data for HGV and the SP500 GGM CALCULATING THE GORDON MODEL Number of shares outstanding, Dec. 2020 Share price, 31Dec 21 Equity value, Dec 21 Method 1: rE Gordon using only dividends Stock price, 31dec20 Dividend, 2020The company do not pay dividends, so we did not calculate the Gordon Growth Model. Anticipated dividend growth rE, cost of equity using only dividends Method 2: rE Gordon using equity payout Total equity payout, 2020 Anticipated growth of this payout rE, cost of equity using total equity payout Using the two-stage Gordon model Number of high-growth years Normal growth after high-growth years rE, cost of equity using two-stage Gordon model EquityCost USING THE CAPM TO COMPUTE HGV'S COST OF EQUITYYearEarnings YieldDividend YieldS&P 500EarningsDividendsPayout Ratio Market price/earnings multiple, December 202123.6320203.68%1.51%3756.07138.1256.741.05% Equity cash flow payout ratio28.68%20214.33%1.24%4766.18206.3859.228.68% Anticipated growth of market equity cash flow6.00% Expected market return, E(rM)7.29%Note: Price/Earnings ratio for S&P 500 from https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio/table/by-month Treasury bill rate, December 20210.06%Payout ratio for S&P 500 from http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/spearn.htm HGV's tax rate, TC34.57% Method 3: rE using the SML Equity beta2.2384 rE, cost of equity16.24% Method 4: rE using the tax-adjusted SML Equity beta2.2384 rE, cost of equity16.26% DebtCost COMPUTING HGV's COST OF DEBT, rD Year 2021 interest expense from HGV's income statement-95,000,000 Year 2021 debt, from HGV's balance sheet4,241,000,000 Year 2020 debt, from HGV's balance sheet1,925,000,000 Average debt3,083,000,000 Cost of debt, rD-3.08% WACC COMPUTING THE WACC FOR HGV Shares outstanding119,904,001HGV Annual Effective Tax Rate(Dec 31 2021)(Dec 31 2019) Share price, end 202152.11Y / Y Annual Pre-Tax Income Growth-1.47%- Equity value, E6,248,197,492Y / Y Annual Income taxes expenses / -benefit Growth63.16%- Net debt, D4,828,000,000Annual Effective Tax Rate34.57%20.88% Cost of debt, rD-3.08% HGV's tax rate, TC34.57%https://csimarket.com/stocks/singleProfitabilityRatiosy.php?code=HGV&itx=1&image.x=15&image.y=13 Market risk free rate, rf0.06% Expected market return, E(rM)7.29% WACC based on classic CAPM and interest from financial statements HGV beta2.2384 Cost of equity, rE16.24% WACC8.28% WACC based on tax-adjusted CAPM and interest from financial statements HGV beta2.2384 Cost of equity, rE16.26% WACC8.29% Estimated WACC8.29% 5 Year Model HGV Estimated - FINANCIAL MODEL, 2022-2026COMMON SIZE I/S Profit and loss assumptions20212020201920182017Average Sales growth6.42%Sales COGS/Sales74.39%Cost of Goods Sold66.81%87.92%74.05%70.64%72.53%74.39% SG&A/Sales6.95%Selling, General, and Administrative Expense6.47%10.29%6.04%5.85%6.08%6.95% Depreciation/Gross fixed assets8.00%Operating Income Before Depreciation26.72%1.79%19.91%23.51%21.39%18.67% Interest rate2.84%Unusual Expense (Income)4.63%24.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%5.76% Minority interest as % of PAT0.00%Depreciation and Amortization5.40%5.03%2.77%1.80%1.69%3.34% Growth rate of total dividends0.00%Interest Expense-4.07%-4.25%-2.12%-1.50%-1.52%-2.69% Tax rate34.57%Nonoperating Income (Expense) and Special Items-1.11%0.34%-0.16%-0.05%0.00%-0.20% Unusual Expense (Income)/ Sales5.76%Acquisition and integration-related expense0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% Balance sheet assumptionsPretax Income11.52%-31.32%14.85%20.16%18.18%6.68% AssetsIncome Taxes - Total3.98%-8.84%3.10%5.45%6.78%2.10% Cash and short-term investments432000000Minority Interest0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% Receivables/Sales9.98%Income Before Extraordinary Items7.54%-22.48%11.75%14.71%11.40%4.58% Inventories/Sales43.62%Extraordinary Items and Discontinued Operations0.00%0.00%0.00%0.20%7.71%1.58% Other Current Assets/Sales6.55%Net Income (Loss)7.54%-22.48%11.75%14.91%19.11%6.17% Property, Plant, Equipment, Net/Sales35.37% Investments and advancesConstant Other Assets, annual growth rate31.59% Liabilities Accounts Payable/Sales6.40% Accrued Expense/Sales16.14% Other Current Liabilities/Sales4.60% Debt/Assets52.96% Deferred Taxes132766700 Minority Interest- Other liabilities, annual growth33.77% Common Stock1000000 Capital Surplus1630000000 Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)1543000000 Treasury stockPlug 2021A2022E2023E2024E2025E2026E Sales23350000002,484,907,0002,644,438,0292,814,108,0542,994,664,2923,186,805,216 Cost of Goods Sold1,560,000,0001,242,453,5001,322,219,0151,407,054,0271,497,332,1461,593,402,608COGS Taken 50% Selling, General, and Administrative Expense151,000,000172,591,966183,672,370195,456,990207,997,723221,343,084 Operating Income Before Depreciation624,000,0001,069,861,5341,138,546,6441,211,597,0371,289,334,4231,372,059,524 Unusual Expense (Income)108,000,000143,062,763152,247,392162,015,751172,410,858183,472