Do problem 12.58. Submit an Excel file with your models and responses.58. The filecontains monthly...

Question

Do problem 12.58. Submit an Excel file with your models and responses.

58. The filecontains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions.

First, use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 month with an exponential trend model.

Second, use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 month with Holt’s method using optimized smoothing constants.

Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.

answer must be submitted by excel

Source Federal Reserve Board (at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/HIST/cc_hist_r_levels.html) Data MonthCredit Chris Albright: Consumer Revolving Credit through Credit Unions ($millions), not seasonally adjusted. Jan-200020156 Feb-200019901 Mar-200019706 Apr-200019851 May-200019930 Jun-200020172 Jul-200020549 Aug-200020944 Sep-200021001 Oct-200021101 Nov-200021656 Dec-200022226 Jan-200121710 Feb-200121408 Mar-200120891 Apr-200121054 May-200121207 Jun-200121268 Jul-200121710 Aug-200122014 Sep-200121612 Oct-200121314 Nov-200121597 Dec-200122265 Jan-200221517 Feb-200221251 Mar-200220816 Apr-200220855 May-200220882 Jun-200220988 Jul-200221178 Aug-200221449 Sep-200221304 Oct-200221119 Nov-200221260 Dec-200222228 Jan-200321631 Feb-200321106 Mar-200320737 Apr-200320903 May-200320988 Jun-200321105 Jul-200321272 Aug-200321390 Sep-200321291 Oct-200321261 Nov-200321379 Dec-200322410 Jan-200421012 Feb-200421570 Mar-200421572 Apr-200421265 May-200421385 Jun-200421606 Jul-200421697 Aug-200422235 Sep-200422166 Oct-200422057 Nov-200422336 Dec-200423244 Jan-200522849 Feb-200522511 Mar-200522310 Apr-200522431 May-200522622 Jun-200522816 Jul-200523097 Aug-200523318 Sep-200523202 Oct-200523308 Nov-200523616 Dec-200524688 Jan-200623725 Feb-200623489 Mar-200623324 Apr-200623782 May-200624277 Jun-200624706 Jul-200625113 Aug-200625161 Sep-200625232 Oct-200625853 Nov-200626240 Dec-200627388 Jan-200726993 Feb-200726740 Mar-200726612 Apr-200726998 May-200727495 Jun-200727724 Jul-200728390 Aug-200728780 Sep-200728971 Oct-200729334 Nov-200729919 Dec-200731071 Jan-200830737 Feb-200830321 Mar-200830270 Apr-200830486 May-200830752 Jun-200831275 Jul-200831621 Aug-200832028 Sep-200832172 Oct-200832136 Nov-200832456 Dec-200833425 Jan-200933102 Feb-200932268 Mar-200932159 Apr-200932584 May-200933031 Jun-200933477 Jul-200933559 Aug-200934143 Sep-200934208 Oct-200934209 Nov-200934611 Dec-200935444 Jan-201035068 Feb-201034369 Mar-201034229 Apr-201034478 May-201034800 Jun-201034943 Jul-201035259 Aug-201035546 Sep-201035333 Oct-201035480 Nov-201035790 Dec-201036340 Jan-201135920 Feb-201135268 Mar-201135014 Apr-201135201 May-201135570 Jun-201135765 Jul-201136167 Aug-201136426 Sep-201136273 Oct-201136760 Nov-201137055 Dec-201137943 Jan-201237272 Feb-201236694 Mar-201236447 Apr-201236569 May-201237198 Jun-201237371 Jul-201237410 Aug-201238148 Sep-201238143 Oct-201238221 Nov-201239891 Dec-201238888 Jan-201339401 Feb-201339318 Mar-201339383 Apr-201339456 May-201339755 Jun-201340137 Jul-201340601 Aug-201341075 Sep-201341106 Oct-201341153 Nov-201341701 Dec-201343382 Jan-201442727 Feb-201441991 Mar-201442056 Apr-201442232 May-201442846 Jun-201443318 Jul-201443675 Aug-201444484 Sep-201444516 Oct-201444500 Nov-201444942 Dec-201446796 Jan-201546220 Feb-201545332 Mar-201545194 Apr-201545300 May-201545933 Jun-201545147

p1258-lafayqog.xlsx

Rochak · Accepted Answer

Source
Federal Reserve Board (at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/HIST/cc_hist_r_levels.html)
Data
			Forecast (Exponential Trend Model)
	Month	Credit
 Chris Albright: Consumer Revolving Credit through Credit Unions ($millions), not seasonally adjusted.
	Forecast (Exponential Trend Model)
	Jan-2000	20,156	16,288
	Feb-2000	19,901	16,438
	Mar-2000	19,706	16,579
	Apr-2000	19,851	16,729
	May-2000	19,930	16,874
	Jun-2000	20,172	17,024
	Jul-2000	20,549	17,169
	Aug-2000	20,944	17,319
	Sep-2000	21,001	17,469
	Oct-2000	21,101	17,614
	Nov-2000	21,656	17,764
	Dec-2000	22,226	17,909
	Jan-2001	21,710	18,059
	Feb-2001	21,408	18,209
	Mar-2001	20,891	18,345
	Apr-2001	21,054	18,495
	May-2001	21,207	18,640
	Jun-2001	21,268	18,790
	Jul-2001	21,710	18,935
	Aug-2001	22,014	19,085
	Sep-2001	21,612	19,235
	Oct-2001	21,314	19,380
	Nov-2001	21,597	19,530
	Dec-2001	22,265	19,675
	Jan-2002	21,517	19,825
	Feb-2002	21,251	19,975
	Mar-2002	20,816	20,111
	Apr-2002	20,855	20,261
	May-2002	20,882	20,406
	Jun-2002	20,988	20,556
	Jul-2002	21,178	20,701
	Aug-2002	21,449	20,851
	Sep-2002	21,304	21,001
	Oct-2002	21,119	21,146
	Nov-2002	21,260	21,296
	Dec-2002	22,228	21,441
	Jan-2003	21,631	21,591
	Feb-2003	21,106	21,741
	Mar-2003	20,737	21,877
	Apr-2003	20,903	22,027
	May-2003	20,988	22,172
	Jun-2003	21,105	22,322
	Jul-2003	21,272	22,467
	Aug-2003	21,390	22,617
	Sep-2003	21,291	22,767
	Oct-2003	21,261	22,912
	Nov-2003	21,379	23,062
	Dec-2003	22,410	23,207
	Jan-2004	21,012	23,357
	Feb-2004	21,570	23,507
	Mar-2004	21,572	23,648
	Apr-2004	21,265	23,798
	May-2004	21,385	23,943
	Jun-2004	21,606	24,093
	Jul-2004	21,697	24,238
	Aug-2004	22,235	24,388
	Sep-2004	22,166	24,538
	Oct-2004	22,057	24,683
	Nov-2004	22,336	24,833
	Dec-2004	23,244	24,978
	Jan-2005	22,849	25,128
	Feb-2005	22,511	25,278
	Mar-2005	22,310	25,414
	Apr-2005	22,431	25,564
	May-2005	22,622	25,709
	Jun-2005	22,816	25,859
	Jul-2005	23,097	26,004
	Aug-2005	23,318	26,154
	Sep-2005	23,202	26,304
	Oct-2005	23,308	26,449
	Nov-2005	23,616	26,599
	Dec-2005	24,688	26,744
	Jan-2006	23,725	26,894
	Feb-2006	23,489	27,044
	Mar-2006	23,324	27,180
	Apr-2006	23,782	27,330
	May-2006	24,277	27,475
	Jun-2006	24,706	27,625
	Jul-2006	25,113	27,770
	Aug-2006	25,161	27,920
	Sep-2006	25,232	28,070
	Oct-2006	25,853	28,215
	Nov-2006	26,240	28,365
	Dec-2006	27,388	28,511
	Jan-2007	26,993	28,661
	Feb-2007	26,740	28,811
	Mar-2007	26,612	28,946
	Apr-2007	26,998	29,096
	May-2007	27,495	29,241
	Jun-2007	27,724	29,391
	Jul-2007	28,390	29,536
	Aug-2007	28,780	29,686
	Sep-2007	28,971	29,836
	Oct-2007	29,334	29,981
	Nov-2007	29,919	30,131
	Dec-2007	31,071	30,277
	Jan-2008	30,737	30,427
	Feb-2008	30,321	30,577
	Mar-2008	30,270	30,717
	Apr-2008	30,486	30,867
	May-2008	30,752	31,012
	Jun-2008	31,275	31,162
	Jul-2008	31,621	31,307
	Aug-2008	32,028	31,457
	Sep-2008	32,172	31,607
	Oct-2008	32,136	31,752
	Nov-2008	32,456	31,902
	Dec-2008	33,425	32,048
	Jan-2009	33,102	32,198
	Feb-2009	32,268	32,348
	Mar-2009	32,159	32,483
	Apr-2009	32,584	32,633
	May-2009	33,031	32,778
	Jun-2009	33,477	32,928
	Jul-2009	33,559	33,073
	Aug-2009	34,143	33,223
	Sep-2009	34,208	33,373
	Oct-2009	34,209	33,518
	Nov-2009	34,611	33,668
	Dec-2009	35,444	33,814
	Jan-2010	35,068	33,964
	Feb-2010	34,369	34,114
	Mar-2010	34,229	34,249
	Apr-2010	34,478	34,399
	May-2010	34,800	34,544
	Jun-2010	34,943	34,694
	Jul-2010	35,259	34,839
	Aug-2010	35,546	34,989
	Sep-2010	35,333	35,139
	Oct-2010	35,480	35,285
	Nov-2010	35,790	35,435
	Dec-2010	36,340	35,580
	Jan-2011	35,920	35,730
	Feb-2011	35,268	35,880
	Mar-2011	35,014	36,015
	Apr-2011	35,201	36,165
	May-2011	35,570	36,310
	Jun-2011	35,765	36,460
	Jul-2011	36,167	36,605
	Aug-2011	36,426	36,755
	Sep-2011	36,273	36,905
	Oct-2011	36,760	37,051
	Nov-2011	37,055	37,201
	Dec-2011	37,943	37,346
	Jan-2012	37,272	37,496
	Feb-2012	36,694	37,646
	Mar-2012	36,447	37,786
	Apr-2012	36,569	37,936
	May-2012	37,198	38,081
	Jun-2012	37,371	38,231
	Jul-2012	37,410	38,376
	Aug-2012	38,148	38,526
	Sep-2012	38,143	38,676
	Oct-2012	38,221	38,822
	Nov-2012	39,891	38,972
	Dec-2012	38,888	39,117
	Jan-2013	39,401	39,267
	Feb-2013	39,318	39,417
	Mar-2013	39,383	39,552
	Apr-2013	39,456	39,702
	May-2013	39,755	39,847
	Jun-2013	40,137	39,997
	Jul-2013	40,601	40,142
	Aug-2013	41,075	40,292
	Sep-2013	41,106	40,442
	Oct-2013	41,153	40,588
	Nov-2013	41,701	40,738
	Dec-2013	43,382	40,883
	Jan-2014	42,727	41,033
	Feb-2014	41,991	41,183
	Mar-2014	42,056	41,318
	Apr-2014	42,232	41,468
	May-2014	42,846	41,613
	Jun-2014	43,318	41,763
	Jul-2014	43,675	41,909
	Aug-2014	44,484	42,059
	Sep-2014	44,516	42,209
	Oct-2014	44,500	42,354
	Nov-2014	44,942	42,504
	Dec-2014	46,796	42,649
	Jan-2015	46,220	42,799
	Feb-2015	45,332	42,949
	Mar-2015	45,194	43,084
	Apr-2015	45,300	43,234
	May-2015	45,933	43,379
	Jun-2015	45,147	43,529
	Jul-2015		43,675
	Aug-2015		43,825
	Sep-2015		43,975
	Oct-2015		44,120
	Nov-2015		44,270
	Dec-2015		44,415
	Jan-2016		44,565
	Feb-2016		44,715
	Mar-2016		44,855
	Apr-2016		45,005
	May-2016		45,150
	Jun-2016		45,300
Exponential Trend
	Month	Credit
 Chris Albright: Consumer Revolving Credit through Credit Unions ($millions), not seasonally adjusted.
	Forecast (Exponential Trend Model)		Absolute Percent Error
	Jan-2000	20,156	16,141		19.92
	Feb-2000	19,901	16,291		18.14
	Mar-2000	19,706	16,431		16.62
	Apr-2000	19,851	16,581		16.47
	May-2000	19,930	16,726		16.07
	Jun-2000	20,172	16,876		16.34
	Jul-2000	20,549	17,022		17.17
	Aug-2000	20,944	17,172		18.01
	Sep-2000	21,001	17,322		17.52
	Oct-2000	21,101	17,467		17.22
	Nov-2000	21,656	17,617		18.65
	Dec-2000	22,226	17,762		20.09
	Jan-2001	21,710	17,912		17.49
	Feb-2001	21,408	18,062		15.63
	Mar-2001	20,891	18,197		12.89
	Apr-2001	21,054	18,347		12.86
	May-2001	21,207	18,493		12.80
	Jun-2001	21,268	18,643		12.34
	Jul-2001	21,710	18,788		13.46
	Aug-2001	22,014	18,938		13.97
	Sep-2001	21,612	19,088		11.68
	Oct-2001	21,314	19,233		9.76
	Nov-2001	21,597	19,383		10.25
	Dec-2001	22,265	19,528		12.29
	Jan-2002	21,517	19,678		8.55
	Feb-2002	21,251	19,828		6.70
	Mar-2002	20,816	19,963		4.10
	Apr-2002	20,855	20,113		3.56
	May-2002	20,882	20,259		2.99
	Jun-2002	20,988	20,409		2.76
	Jul-2002	21,178	20,554		2.95
	Aug-2002	21,449	20,704		3.47
	Sep-2002	21,304	20,854		2.11
	Oct-2002	21,119	20,999		0.57
	Nov-2002	21,260	21,149		0.52
	Dec-2002	22,228	21,294		4.20
	Jan-2003	21,631	21,444		0.86
	Feb-2003	21,

Do problem XXXXXXXXXXSubmit an Excel file with your models and responses.58. The filecontains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions.First, use these...

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