Analyse and present data graphically using spreadsheet software (Excel). 2. Critically evaluate summary statistics against suitable benchmarks. 3. Apply judgment to select appropriate methods of data...

Analyse and present data graphically using


spreadsheet software (Excel).


2. Critically evaluate summary statistics against suitable


benchmarks.



3. Apply judgment
 to select appropriate methods of



data analysis drawing on knowledge of regression


analysis, probability, probability distributions and


sampling distributions.


4. Select and apply a range of data analysis tools to



inform problem solving
 and decision making.



5. Conduct quantitative research both individually and as


part of a team and articulate and present findings to a


wide range of stakeholders, from accounting and nonaccounting


backgrounds.

Assessment 3 Briefs: Report Page 1 of 9 ASSESSMENT BRIEF Subject Code and Title STAT 6003: Statistics for Financial Decisions Assessment Assessment 3: Report Individual/Group Individual Length NA Learning Outcomes 1. Analyse and present data graphically usingspreadsheet software (Excel). 2. Critically evaluate summary statistics against suitable benchmarks. 3. Apply judgement to select appropriate methods of data analysis drawing on knowledge of regression analysis, probability, probability distributions and sampling distributions. 4. Select and apply a range of data analysis tools to inform problem solving and decision making. 5. Conduct quantitative research both individually and as part of a team and articulate and present findings to a wide range of stakeholders, from accounting and non- accounting backgrounds. Submission By 11:55pm AEST/AEDT Sunday one week after Module 6 Weighting 50% Total Marks 100 marks Context: The report asks students to apply their knowledge on the concepts and ideas discussed during the Modules in a comprehensive work. The report allows students to reflect back on their previous learning performances and outcomes, and to make use of previous submissions. Instructions: You are expected to submit a report that requires you to apply your knowledge from all Modules and draws links between the scenario and the learning resources. Furthermore, you are expected to incorporate feedback given to your short written assessments (assessment no.1) and feedback provided to your presentation (assessment no. 2) in your final report. Your answers should reflect upon and analyse issues of the key discussion points of the Modules. Your answers should also effectively communicate and demonstrate Assessment 3 Briefs: Report Page 2 of 9 that key concepts covered during this course can be applied by you in a comprehensive manner. The report also asks you to apply critical thinking and analysis. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Report and presentation As discussed above, your final two assessments are inter-linked: - Assessment 3 requires you to write a report. - For Assessment 2 you are to present the preliminary findings of your report (Assessment 3). o The presentation (Assessment 2) provides you with an opportunity to receive feedback from the learning facilitator which you are then to implement and address in your final report. Introduction: 1. Analysis of sales and country data, forecasting of sales figures until 2020 The Board of Directors of Schmeckt Gut instructs you to write a report of the development of sales in Industria, Nokaragua and the Federated Islands over the past 25 years. Furthermore, the board would like you to use forecasting methodologies to project the sales for the next 5 years (until 2020) by applying reasonable assumptions based on the data provided and your analysis. Additional details are provided below. 2. Market place Sweden – Estimate of potential sales figures in 2016 and forecast to 2020 Schmeckt Gut has recently entered the Swedish market and the Board is interested in an estimate of this year’s sales as well as potential sales for the next 5 years (until 2020). Additional details are provided below. Data set: The excel file provides you with four data sets for the 4 countries of interest which include: • Sales figures in US$ (not available for Sweden) • GDP data in US$ • Average Price Index (in %) • Population (15-65 years of age) Assessment 3 Briefs: Report Page 3 of 9 • Survey score – this is the average result of a customer satisfaction survey (0=not satisfies, 10=very satisfied) • Number of average advertisements • Number of stores All data is exogenous and independent except in their relation with the sales figures. Detailed tasks 1. Analysis of sales and country data, forecasting of sales figures until 2020 • Provide a statistical overview of the data provided in the excel sheets for each country (you can also do a comparison analysis) • Conduct a correlation analysis between sales development and: o (i) advertisements, (ii) number of stores and (iii) the survey results • Conduct a multi regression time series analysis and use the results to forecast the sales until 2020. o Hint: You should use natural logs (ln) for your analysis as discussed in your assignment of Module 5. o For your reasonable assumptions which are required for the forecasting, you should apply hypothesis testing techniques for the GDP, Prices and Population developments.  For example, if you forecast a GDP growth of 3.5%, knowing the past GDP growth figures, is the forecast of 3.5% an acceptable growth figure for the forecast or should that Null hypothesis be rejected? 2. Market place Sweden – Estimate of potential sales figures in 2016 and forecast to 2020 • Based on your analysis in part 1, which country (Industria, Federated Islands, Nokaragua) is closest related to Sweden? Justify your selection. o Hint: Look at average GDP per capita statistics (GDP divided by Population) and Price Index. • Once you have identified the country that is closet related to Sweden, use that country’s characteristics of the analysis undertaken in the first part to estimate/forecast the potential sales for the Swedish market. o Use the forecasts from the IMF to project GDP growth rates and a potential price index (CPI or Inflation rate) for the years 2016 to 2020.  See pg 40 of the ‘IMF 2015 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION’ report for Sweden for the data. Assessment 3 Briefs: Report Page 4 of 9 3. Other suggestions - Based on your analysis in parts 1 and 2, are there any other suggestions you have for the Board on how Schmeckt Gut can boost sales in the countries? Your presentation: - Create a presentation (for example with PowerPoint) and turn your presentation into a video. o See https://support.office.com/en-us/article/Turn-your-presentation-into-a- video-c140551f-cb37-4818-b5d4-3e30815c3e83 for details should you decide to use PowerPoint o You can also use any other suitable programs - Present your main results that will assist the Board in their decision making o Focus on the main results and explain which techniques you have applied to achieve these results and why you used these techniques. o What do these results imply? o What are your main recommendations? - Your presentation should not be longer than 15 minutes - Submit your narrated video on Blackboard. https://support.office.com/en-us/article/Turn-your-presentation-into-a-video-c140551f-cb37-4818-b5d4-3e30815c3e83 https://support.office.com/en-us/article/Turn-your-presentation-into-a-video-c140551f-cb37-4818-b5d4-3e30815c3e83 Assessment 3 Briefs: Report Page 5 of 9 Learning Rubrics Assessment Attributes Fail (Unacceptable) Pass (Functional) Credit (Proficient) Distinction (Advanced) High Distinction (Exceptional) Grade Description (Grading Scheme) Evidence of unsatisfactory achievement of one or more of the learning objectives of the course, insufficient understanding of the course content and/or unsatisfactory level of skill development. Evidence of satisfactory achievement of course learning objectives, the development of relevant skills to a competent level, and adequate interpretation and critical analysis skills. Evidence of a good level of understanding, knowledge and skill development in relation to the content of the course or work of a superior quality on the majority of the learning objectives of the course. Demonstration of a high level of interpretation and critical analysis skills. Evidence of a high level of achievement of the learning objectives of the course demonstrated in such areas as interpretation and critical analysis, logical argument, use of methodology and communication skills. Evidence of an exceptional level of achievement of learning objectives across the entire content of the course demonstrated in such areas as interpretation and critical analysis, logical argument, creativity, originality, use of methodology and communication skills. Content, Audience and Purpose Points for this criteria Does not meet minimum standard Demonstrates no awareness of context and/or purpose of the assignment. Meets minimum standard Demonstrates limited awareness of context and/or purpose of the assignment Moves beyond minimum standard Demonstrates consistent awareness of context and/or purpose of the assignment. Exceeds minimum standard Demonstrates an advanced and integrated understanding of context and/or purpose of the assignment. Exceeds minimum standard and exhibits high levels of independence Consistently demonstrates a systematic and critical understanding of context and purpose of the assignment. Knowledge and understanding Limited understanding of required concepts and knowledge Knowledge or understanding of the field or discipline. Resembles a recall or summary of key ideas. Thorough knowledge or understanding of the field or discipline/s. Supports personal opinion and information substantiated by Highly developed understanding of the field or discipline/s. A sophisticated understanding of the field or discipline/s. http://www.tua.edu.au/media/50742/a240_grading-scheme.pdf Assessment 3 Briefs: Report Page 6 of 9 Points for this criteria Key components of the assignment are not addressed. Often conflates/confuses assertion of personal opinion with information substantiated by evidence from the research/course materials. evidence from the research/course materials. Demonstrates a capacity to explain and apply relevant concepts. Discriminates between assertion of personal opinion and information substantiated by robust evidence from the research/course materials and extended reading. Well demonstrated capacity to explain and apply relevant concepts. Systematically and critically discriminates between assertion of personal opinion and information substantiated by robust evidence from the research/course materials and extended reading. Mastery of concepts and application to new situations/further learning. Critical reasoning, presentation and defence of an argument and/or position