In good years, storms occur according to a Poisson process with rate 3 per unit time, while in other years they occur according to a Poisson process with rate 5 per unit time. Suppose next year will...


In good years, storms occur according to a Poisson process with rate 3 per unit time, while in other years they occur according to a Poisson process with rate 5 per unit time. Suppose next year will be a good year with probability 0.3. Let N (t) denote the number of storms during the first t time units of next year.


(a) Find P {N (t) = n}.


(b) Is {N (t)} a Poisson process?


(c) Does {N (t)} have stationary increments? Why or why not?


(d) Does it have independent increments? Why or why not?


(e) If next year starts off with three storms by time t = 1, what is the conditional probability it is a good year?



May 25, 2022
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