Note you will use this data for the next 7 questions.
Below is some data from years past on the average time it takes students to complete a statistics exam.
Years |
Period |
Minutes |
2014 |
1 |
53 |
2015 |
2 |
62 |
2016 |
3 |
51 |
2017 |
4 |
91 |
2018 |
5 |
74 |
2019 |
6 |
101 |
2020 |
7 |
124 |
1) Compute a weighted two-period moving average for the series. Use a weight of 2/3 for the most recent observation and a weight of 1/3 for the second most recent observation. What is the mean absolute error (MAE)? Round to two decimals.
2) Continuing with the weighted average method from the previous question โ what is the forecast for 2021? Round to two decimals.
3)Now find the exponential smoothing forecasts for ax= 0.9. What is the mean squared error (MSE)? Round to two decimals.
4)What is the 2021 forecast using exponential smoothing with ax= 0.9? Report it below. Round to two decimals.
5) Do you prefer the exponential smoothing or weighted average method to forecast the amount of time it will take a student to finish this exam?
6) Use 2014 through 2020 data to develop a linear trend equation for this time series. Write the equation below (4 decimals).
7) What is the average increase, per year, in the number of minutes it takes students to complete the exam? Round to two decimals.