PowerPoint Presentation United States Population Future Estimates and Long-Term Distribution 11/22/2021 OUTLINE Introduction Question – immigration rate Matrix Different immigration rates Comparison...

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PowerPoint Presentation United States Population Future Estimates and Long-Term Distribution 11/22/2021 OUTLINE Introduction Question – immigration rate Matrix Different immigration rates Comparison Conclusion Reference Introduction – U.S. population The population overall is increasing. In 2020, it reach 330 million roughly. Birth rate keep increasing before 1960 Fertility increase between 1960-1974 After 1974 to now, the birth rate keep stable Question 1 - population increases Having two children on average means => rate of birth = rate of death The paper indicates that birth rate down to 1.86 per women, up to 2014. Lower birth rate or immigration rate? Questions 2 - Immigration rate Use average number of legal immigrants coming to the United States on a yearly basis. we were working in 10 year gaps for our model, we added 3% of the total population to each interval. Analysis with matrix Survival rate of 70-79 years age group was 83.34% and of 80-89 age group was 53.37% and the total of both these rate brought the 1.3720 number of the last group. Analysis with initial population distribution We take population from 1970 actual data as initial population distribution Population from 1970 is around 209 million Make up the initial population vector Population (after 50 years) is 476.5 million Actual population in 2020 and prediction in 2020 has 146 million difference Population with different immigration rates 1 When immigration rate was down to 1% Start on 1970 population and other parameter remain same Population with different immigration rates 1 When immigration rate was down to 1% Start on 1970 population and other parameter remain same Population with different immigration rates 2 When immigration rate is down to 2% Start on 1970 population Population with different immigration rates 3 When immigration rate is up to 4% Start on 1970 population Comparison Comparison the population distribution for each immigration rate 1%, 2%, 2.5%, 3%, and 4% The population between 2% ~ 2.5 % immigration rate is closest to the actual 2020 population. Population distribution in 2050 with 2.25% I would use 2.25% as immigration rate because population in 2020 with 2.25% rate is closest to the actual population 2020. Conclusion The model add immigration rate to predict the population. Immigration rate as 2.25% to predict population in 2050 and total population is around 328 million. In the future, immigration rate change will change constantly, we still need to consider more factors to reach the accurate prediction Further thinking – Leslie and population matrix Leslie matrix population model is one of a very popular models which is used in ecology to predict the changes in the population over the time. There is no specific age group in Leslie matrix In this population matrix model, the there is defined age group of 10 years. This population matrix is a square matrix of 9X9. This model is easy to read and doesn’t require much data Leslie matrix is complex matrix to read for a common man and need some specific data such as count of individuals in each age class, the fraction of individuals that survives from the that age class etc. Reference https://via.library.depaul.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1134&context=depaul-disc https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/population Thank you for watching Project paper Deadline:11/23/2021 11:00AM (Chicago time) Dear expert, This is a math modeling assignment, and you must be proficient on population matrix model. If you did my previous assignment, you may know what my project about. What you need to do: · Read the article and my presentation BEFORE start to write the paper · Write a three-pages paper based on the article and my presentation document. (Three-pages do NOT include any cover page or attached figures.) · Just use 12 Times New Roman and double line spacing. · You must use some of my work (the Maple pictures from presentation) and put them into the paper. What the paper should cover: · Introduction · Summary and analyze the article (especially about the matrix model) (surely, you could also pick some important points to discuss) · Summary and analyze what I did in my presentation · Conclusion for the article and my result/comparison · Further work (if possible) What about my project: My presentation is based on the article and this paper should be based the article and my presentation. The core is to predict the population in 2050. The article already gave 3% immigration rate and the author start with 1970, 1980 and 1990. In my side, I first use different immigration rates to predict 2020 population. And then picking 2.25% as immigration rate to calculate the population in 2050 because 2.25% is the middle number between 2% and 2.5%. X50 represent the population in 2020, and x80 represent the population in 2050. I made all calculation by using Maple. You can add more your own work based on my work, if you want. You could use outside resources to support (if you want) but NO MORE THAN TWO RESOURCES. By the way, I already used this presentation in the class, so don’t make too much changes if you want to revise a little bit. Thank you United States Population Future Estimates and Long-Term Distribution DePaul Discoveries DePaul Discoveries Volume 7 Issue 1 Article 11 2018 United States Population Future Estimates and Long-Term United States Population Future Estimates and Long-Term Distribution Distribution Sean P. Brogan DePaul University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://via.library.depaul.edu/depaul-disc Part of the Analysis Commons, Life Sciences Commons, Medicine and Health Sciences Commons, Numerical Analysis and Computation Commons, and the Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons Recommended Citation Recommended Citation Brogan, Sean P. (2018) "United States Population Future Estimates and Long-Term Distribution," DePaul Discoveries: Vol. 7 : Iss. 1 , Article 11. Available at: https://via.library.depaul.edu/depaul-disc/vol7/iss1/11 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the College of Science and Health at Via Sapientiae. It has been accepted for inclusion in DePaul Discoveries by an authorized editor of Via Sapientiae. For more information, please contact [email protected]. https://via.library.depaul.edu/depaul-disc https://via.library.depaul.edu/depaul-disc/vol7 https://via.library.depaul.edu/depaul-disc/vol7/iss1 https://via.library.depaul.edu/depaul-disc/vol7/iss1/11 https://via.library.depaul.edu/depaul-disc?utm_source=via.library.depaul.edu%2Fdepaul-disc%2Fvol7%2Fiss1%2F11&utm_medium=PDF&utm_campaign=PDFCoverPages http://network.bepress.com/hgg/discipline/177?utm_source=via.library.depaul.edu%2Fdepaul-disc%2Fvol7%2Fiss1%2F11&utm_medium=PDF&utm_campaign=PDFCoverPages http://network.bepress.com/hgg/discipline/1016?utm_source=via.library.depaul.edu%2Fdepaul-disc%2Fvol7%2Fiss1%2F11&utm_medium=PDF&utm_campaign=PDFCoverPages http://network.bepress.com/hgg/discipline/648?utm_source=via.library.depaul.edu%2Fdepaul-disc%2Fvol7%2Fiss1%2F11&utm_medium=PDF&utm_campaign=PDFCoverPages http://network.bepress.com/hgg/discipline/119?utm_source=via.library.depaul.edu%2Fdepaul-disc%2Fvol7%2Fiss1%2F11&utm_medium=PDF&utm_campaign=PDFCoverPages http://network.bepress.com/hgg/discipline/316?utm_source=via.library.depaul.edu%2Fdepaul-disc%2Fvol7%2Fiss1%2F11&utm_medium=PDF&utm_campaign=PDFCoverPages https://via.library.depaul.edu/depaul-disc/vol7/iss1/11?utm_source=via.library.depaul.edu%2Fdepaul-disc%2Fvol7%2Fiss1%2F11&utm_medium=PDF&utm_campaign=PDFCoverPages mailto:[email protected] ____________________________________ 1 [email protected] Research Completed in Summer 2017 United States Population Future Estimates and Long-Term Distribution Sean Brogan1 College of Computer Science and Digital Media, Math and Computer Science Ilie Ugarcovici, PhD; Faculty Advisor Department of Mathematical Sciences INTRODUCTION Throughout the history of the United States, we have never had a year that presented us with a lower population than the year prior. This can be attributed to women on average having more than two live births during their lifetime [7]. Having two children on average means that the rate of birth is equal to the rate of death, with the two children replacing their parents as far as population is concerned. In a practical sense, this means that with no change in mortality rates, we could maintain the current population. When we look at survival rates, people have begun to live much longer. Particularly over the last 35 years, there has been a continuous rise in life expectancy (see Figure 1). This creates a larger net population with fewer people exiting the equation year after year. Therefore, with increasing life expectancy and enough children being born to increase the overall population, we have experienced significant growth as a nation. We also see a noticeable impact on the population from immigration and emigration. The United States receives far more immigrants than the number of emigrants which is yet another reason for the consistent increase in the overall population [6, 8, 9]. It is interesting to note that before 1960, fertility rates were much higher than two children per woman creating a large net growth in overall population. Between 1960 and 1974, however, there was a steady decline in the birth rate. During the next 40 years, fertility rates, while ABSTRACT The population of the United States has always increased year after year. Even now with decreasing birth rates, the overall population continues to grow when looking at conventional models. The present study specifically examines what would happen to the U.S. population if we were to maintain the current birth and survival rates into the future. Our research shows that by 2050, the U.S. population will become much older and cease to grow at all. 1 Brogan: US Population Future Estimates and Long-Term Distribution Published by Via Sapientiae, 2018 mailto:[email protected] much lower, did not change significantly (see Figure 2). As of 2014, the birth rate was down to 1.86 births per woman, which is lower than the required replacement rate of 2.0. However, we have yet to see a decrease in population which raises the question: Should we be concerned by the lower birth rate? The point of our research was to discover what would happen in the long term if the current birth, mortality, and immigration rates remained consistent. METHODS We decided to use a matrix model to predict future growth due to both its simplicity and its versatility (see Table 1). A matrix can be thought of as a mathematical spreadsheet. Statistical data is provided for the given rows and columns. Then by taking a set of known data, such as the US population from a certain year, and applying it to the matrix, future predictions can be made. For example, position (2,1), with the value 0.9956273, represents the number of people from the 0 to 9 age grouping that will move on into the 10 to 19 age grouping after one iteration. This is effectively stating that 99.56273% of people live through the first 10 years of their life. Similarly, position (1,3) represents the number of children Figure 1. United States Life Expectancy Figure 2. United States Fertility Rate 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1 9 0 2 1 9 0 5 1 9 0 8 1 9 1 1 1 9 1 4 1 9 1 7 1 9 2 0 1 9 2
Answered Same DayNov 23, 2021

Answer To: PowerPoint Presentation United States Population Future Estimates and Long-Term Distribution...

Akshay Kumar answered on Nov 23 2021
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United States Population Future Estimates and Long-Term Distribution
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23th Nov 2021
Introduction
The Population of the United
States has been increasing constantly. Every year the population of US is always higher than the population of the pervious year. The one of the major reasons is that the on average women having more than two live births during their lifespan. Initially, the Birth rate was more than 2 during the year 1960 to 1974. Further the survival rate of the people has also increased. People are living longer lives. This resulted in the higher net population with only smaller number of people leaving the equation year after year. In 2020, the population of United States reaches to 330 million roughly.
Population Metrix Model
In order to predict the future growth in the United States population, a matrix model has been used using the data from population distributions – from 1970, 1980 and 1990 distributions and multiplied these vectors, which are based on age groupings, through our matrix to determine what that population would look like in 10 years. Further, the mortality rates were taken from 2007 and birth rates were calculated by individual age grouping using data from 2014.
The Matrix is like a mathematical spreadsheet in which statistical data has been given in the rows and column. A 9X9 model has been created to predict the future population.
Following is the Population matrix.
     
    0 to 9yrs
    10 to 19yrs
    20 to 29yrs
    30 to 39yrs
    40 to 49yrs
    50 to 59yrs
    60 to 69yrs
    70 to 79yrs
    80 to 89yrs
    0 to 9yrs
    0.03
    0.0613
    0.462
    0.3795
    0.0275
    0.002
    0
    0
    0
    10 to 19yrs
    0.9956
    0.03
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    20 to 29yrs
    0
    0.9976
    0.03
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    30 to 39yrs
    0
    0
    0.9953
    0.03
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    40 to 49yrs
    0
    0
    0
    0.9928
    0.03
    0
    0
    0
    0
    50 to...
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