please submit the answer in excel fileThe file Download...

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please submit the answer in excel fileThe fileDownload FinalQuestion3.xlsxcontains data on monthly U.S. permits for new housing units (in thousands of houses).Use simple exponential...

please submit the answer in excel file

The file

Download FinalQuestion3.xlsx

contains data on monthly U.S. permits for new housing units (in thousands of houses).

Use simple exponential smoothing to make predictions of housing sales during the next four months.

Use Holt’s method to make forecasts of housing sales during the next four months.

Use Winters’ method to make predictions of housing sales during the next four months.

Which method would you choose to make the final forecast and why?

Source U.S. Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/construction/bps/uspermits.html Data MonthPermits ISR: In thousands of housing units. Jan-9480.7 Feb-9481.7 Mar-94126.4 Apr-94127.6 May-94131.4 Jun-94138.8 Jul-94114.8 Aug-94131.5 Sep-94127.2 Oct-94117.0 Nov-94100.5 Dec-9494.2 Jan-9578.0 Feb-9580.4 Mar-95111.5 Apr-95109.7 May-95122.8 Jun-95129.3 Jul-95115.6 Aug-95133.5 Sep-95124.1 Oct-95122.2 Nov-95107.8 Dec-9597.4 Jan-9688.3 Feb-9696.0 Mar-96120.4 Apr-96140.1 May-96140.5 Jun-96131.4 Jul-96135.1 Aug-96129.1 Sep-96121.1 Oct-96123.7 Nov-96100.7 Dec-9699.2 Jan-9788.1 Feb-9794.1 Mar-97120.1 Apr-97137.2 May-97131.6 Jun-97133.6 Jul-97133.7 Aug-97126.0 Sep-97134.4 Oct-97135.5 Nov-97100.4 Dec-97106.4 Jan-9896.2 Feb-98107.4 Mar-98140.9 Apr-98146.3 May-98138.2 Jun-98153.4 Jul-98149.3 Aug-98144.7 Sep-98141.7 Oct-98149.8 Nov-98119.9 Dec-98124.5 Jan-99105.7 Feb-99114.7 Mar-99154.6 Apr-99151.8 May-99145.1 Jun-99169.3 Jul-99149.1 Aug-99151.9 Sep-99137.3 Oct-99137.6 Nov-99125.6 Dec-99120.9 Jan-00107.3 Feb-00121.8 Mar-00153.7 Apr-00138.9 May-00148.9 Jun-00155.1 Jul-00129.8 Aug-00146.8 Sep-00131.4 Oct-00134.8 Nov-00121.0 Dec-00102.9 Jan-01117.0 Feb-01114.3 Mar-01147.7 Apr-01148.6 May-01159.8 Jun-01153.9 Jul-01140.6 Aug-01151.4 Sep-01125.2 Oct-01140.2 Nov-01124.4 Dec-01113.6 Jan-02115.7 Feb-02122.5 Mar-02143.2 Apr-02156.0 May-02164.2 Jun-02158.0 Jul-02159.3 Aug-02153.7 Sep-02149.5 Oct-02162.9 Nov-02126.8 Dec-02135.8 Jan-03126.4 Feb-03128.5 Mar-03148.4 Apr-03167.6 May-03169.5 Jun-03175.8 Jul-03173.0 Aug-03169.9 Sep-03169.1 Oct-03182.8 Nov-03130.5 Dec-03147.9 Jan-04132.0 Feb-04137.1 Mar-04190.7 Apr-04192.5 May-04188.4 Jun-04197.1 Jul-04185.9 Aug-04185.2 Sep-04174.9 Oct-04174.5 Nov-04156.4 Dec-04155.2 Jan-05139.7 Feb-05149.4 Mar-05190.5 Apr-05193.2 May-05193.1 Jun-05211.9 Jul-05185.5 Aug-05208.0 Sep-05193.7 Oct-05176.0 Nov-05162.9 Dec-05151.3 Jan-06152.6 Feb-06151.0 Mar-06194.2 Apr-06168.6 May-06184.4 Jun-06184.2 Jul-06148.0 Aug-06161.2 Sep-06136.6 Oct-06133.1 Nov-06111.4 Dec-06113.6 Jan-07114.1 Feb-07112.1 Mar-07139.4 Apr-07130.9 May-07146.0 Jun-07135.6 Jul-07122.5 Aug-07126.0 Sep-07100.5 Oct-07103.8 Nov-0789.5 Dec-0777.8 Jan-0877.4 Feb-0875.0 Mar-0879.1 Apr-0891.5 May-0892.3 Jun-08110.6 Jul-0885.9 Aug-0876.3 Sep-0870.9 Oct-0863.7 Nov-0841.5 Dec-0841.2 Jan-0937.6 Feb-0939.2 Mar-0945.4 Apr-0947.8 May-0949.5 Jun-0961.3 Jul-0956.1 Aug-0954.0 Sep-0952.9 Oct-0947.9 Nov-0942.1 Dec-0949.2 Jan-1040.4 Feb-1045.3 Mar-1064.1 Apr-1058.9 May-1051.1 Jun-1059.2 Jul-1051.6 Aug-1053.7 Sep-1048.5 Oct-1043.5 Nov-1040.9 Dec-1047.6 Jan-1136.3 Feb-1137.7 Mar-1154.4 Apr-1150.7 May-1157.3 Jun-1163.8 Jul-1152.6 Aug-1162.6 Sep-1153.2 Oct-1152.0 Nov-1151.9 Dec-1151.6 Jan-1247.8 Feb-1253.5 Mar-1269.5 Apr-1264.1 May-1277.7 Jun-1275.9 Jul-1274.1 Aug-1280.0 Sep-1273.7 Oct-1277.5 Nov-1268.7 Dec-1267.2 Jan-1365.5 Feb-1367.8 Mar-1377.7 Apr-1392.8 May-1397.2 Jun-1385.7 Jul-1390.2 Aug-1387.1 Sep-1383.1 Oct-1392.5 Nov-1373.5 Dec-1377.8 Jan-1468.6 Feb-1472.3 Mar-1486.3 Apr-1499.1 May-1493.8 Jun-1495.7 Jul-1497.1 Aug-1490.3 Sep-1492.7 Oct-1498.4 Nov-1472.8 Dec-1485.0 Jan-1570.0 Feb-1577.5 Mar-1591.3 Apr-15104.8 May-15111.1 Jun-15134.1 Jul-15102.0

copy-of-finalquestion3-at3pbpqt.xlsx

Answered Same DayDec 13, 2022

Rochak · Accepted Answer

Source
U.S. Census Bureau
http://www.census.gov/construction/bps/uspermits.html
Data
	Month	Permits
ISR: In thousands of housing units.
	Jan-94	80.7
	Feb-94	81.7
	Mar-94	126.4
	Apr-94	127.6
	May-94	131.4
	Jun-94	138.8
	Jul-94	114.8
	Aug-94	131.5
	Sep-94	127.2
	Oct-94	117.0
	Nov-94	100.5
	Dec-94	94.2
	Jan-95	78.0
	Feb-95	80.4
	Mar-95	111.5
	Apr-95	109.7
	May-95	122.8
	Jun-95	129.3
	Jul-95	115.6
	Aug-95	133.5
	Sep-95	124.1
	Oct-95	122.2
	Nov-95	107.8
	Dec-95	97.4
	Jan-96	88.3
	Feb-96	96.0
	Mar-96	120.4
	Apr-96	140.1
	May-96	140.5
	Jun-96	131.4
	Jul-96	135.1
	Aug-96	129.1
	Sep-96	121.1
	Oct-96	123.7
	Nov-96	100.7
	Dec-96	99.2
	Jan-97	88.1
	Feb-97	94.1
	Mar-97	120.1
	Apr-97	137.2
	May-97	131.6
	Jun-97	133.6
	Jul-97	133.7
	Aug-97	126.0
	Sep-97	134.4
	Oct-97	135.5
	Nov-97	100.4
	Dec-97	106.4
	Jan-98	96.2
	Feb-98	107.4
	Mar-98	140.9
	Apr-98	146.3
	May-98	138.2
	Jun-98	153.4
	Jul-98	149.3
	Aug-98	144.7
	Sep-98	141.7
	Oct-98	149.8
	Nov-98	119.9
	Dec-98	124.5
	Jan-99	105.7
	Feb-99	114.7
	Mar-99	154.6
	Apr-99	151.8
	May-99	145.1
	Jun-99	169.3
	Jul-99	149.1
	Aug-99	151.9
	Sep-99	137.3
	Oct-99	137.6
	Nov-99	125.6
	Dec-99	120.9
	Jan-00	107.3
	Feb-00	121.8
	Mar-00	153.7
	Apr-00	138.9
	May-00	148.9
	Jun-00	155.1
	Jul-00	129.8
	Aug-00	146.8
	Sep-00	131.4
	Oct-00	134.8
	Nov-00	121.0
	Dec-00	102.9
	Jan-01	117.0
	Feb-01	114.3
	Mar-01	147.7
	Apr-01	148.6
	May-01	159.8
	Jun-01	153.9
	Jul-01	140.6
	Aug-01	151.4
	Sep-01	125.2
	Oct-01	140.2
	Nov-01	124.4
	Dec-01	113.6
	Jan-02	115.7
	Feb-02	122.5
	Mar-02	143.2
	Apr-02	156.0
	May-02	164.2
	Jun-02	158.0
	Jul-02	159.3
	Aug-02	153.7
	Sep-02	149.5
	Oct-02	162.9
	Nov-02	126.8
	Dec-02	135.8
	Jan-03	126.4
	Feb-03	128.5
	Mar-03	148.4
	Apr-03	167.6
	May-03	169.5
	Jun-03	175.8
	Jul-03	173.0
	Aug-03	169.9
	Sep-03	169.1
	Oct-03	182.8
	Nov-03	130.5
	Dec-03	147.9
	Jan-04	132.0
	Feb-04	137.1
	Mar-04	190.7
	Apr-04	192.5
	May-04	188.4
	Jun-04	197.1
	Jul-04	185.9
	Aug-04	185.2
	Sep-04	174.9
	Oct-04	174.5
	Nov-04	156.4
	Dec-04	155.2
	Jan-05	139.7
	Feb-05	149.4
	Mar-05	190.5
	Apr-05	193.2
	May-05	193.1
	Jun-05	211.9
	Jul-05	185.5
	Aug-05	208.0
	Sep-05	193.7
	Oct-05	176.0
	Nov-05	162.9
	Dec-05	151.3
	Jan-06	152.6
	Feb-06	151.0
	Mar-06	194.2
	Apr-06	168.6
	May-06	184.4
	Jun-06	184.2
	Jul-06	148.0
	Aug-06	161.2
	Sep-06	136.6
	Oct-06	133.1
	Nov-06	111.4
	Dec-06	113.6
	Jan-07	114.1
	Feb-07	112.1
	Mar-07	139.4
	Apr-07	130.9
	May-07	146.0
	Jun-07	135.6
	Jul-07	122.5
	Aug-07	126.0
	Sep-07	100.5
	Oct-07	103.8
	Nov-07	89.5
	Dec-07	77.8
	Jan-08	77.4
	Feb-08	75.0
	Mar-08	79.1
	Apr-08	91.5
	May-08	92.3
	Jun-08	110.6
	Jul-08	85.9
	Aug-08	76.3
	Sep-08	70.9
	Oct-08	63.7
	Nov-08	41.5
	Dec-08	41.2
	Jan-09	37.6
	Feb-09	39.2
	Mar-09	45.4
	Apr-09	47.8
	May-09	49.5
	Jun-09	61.3
	Jul-09	56.1
	Aug-09	54.0
	Sep-09	52.9
	Oct-09	47.9
	Nov-09	42.1
	Dec-09	49.2
	Jan-10	40.4
	Feb-10	45.3
	Mar-10	64.1
	Apr-10	58.9
	May-10	51.1
	Jun-10	59.2
	Jul-10	51.6
	Aug-10	53.7
	Sep-10	48.5
	Oct-10	43.5
	Nov-10	40.9
	Dec-10	47.6
	Jan-11	36.3
	Feb-11	37.7
	Mar-11	54.4
	Apr-11	50.7
	May-11	57.3
	Jun-11	63.8
	Jul-11	52.6
	Aug-11	62.6
	Sep-11	53.2
	Oct-11	52.0
	Nov-11	51.9
	Dec-11	51.6
	Jan-12	47.8
	Feb-12	53.5
	Mar-12	69.5
	Apr-12	64.1
	May-12	77.7
	Jun-12	75.9
	Jul-12	74.1
	Aug-12	80.0
	Sep-12	73.7
	Oct-12	77.5
	Nov-12	68.7
	Dec-12	67.2
	Jan-13	65.5
	Feb-13	67.8
	Mar-13	77.7
	Apr-13	92.8
	May-13	97.2
	Jun-13	85.7
	Jul-13	90.2
	Aug-13	87.1
	Sep-13	83.1
	Oct-13	92.5
	Nov-13	73.5
	Dec-13	77.8
	Jan-14	68.6
	Feb-14	72.3
	Mar-14	86.3
	Apr-14	99.1
	May-14	93.8
	Jun-14	95.7
	Jul-14	97.1
	Aug-14	90.3
	Sep-14	92.7
	Oct-14	98.4
	Nov-14	72.8
	Dec-14	85.0
	Jan-15	70.0
	Feb-15	77.5
	Mar-15	91.3
	Apr-15	104.8
	May-15	111.1
	Jun-15	134.1
	Jul-15	102.0
Exponential Smoothing
	Month	Permits
ISR: In thousands of housing units.
		Forecast (Exponential Smoothing Model)		Absolute Percent Error
	Jan-94	80.7		Forecast (Exponential Smoothing Model)
	Feb-94	81.7		148		81.50
	Mar-94	126.4		148		17.10
	Apr-94	127.6		148		15.81
	May-94	131.4		147		12.25
	Jun-94	138.8		147		6.07
	Jul-94	114.8		147		28.01
	Aug-94	131.5		147		11.55
	Sep-94	127.2		146		15.11
	Oct-94	117.0		146		24.91
	Nov-94	100.5		146		45.16
	Dec-94	94.2		146		54.58
	Jan-95	78.0		145		86.34
	Feb-95	80.4		145		80.44
	Mar-95	111.5		145		29.87
	Apr-95	109.7		145		31.77
	May-95	122.8		144		17.49
	Jun-95	129.3		144		11.38
	Jul-95	115.6		144		24.35
	Aug-95	133.5		143		7.48
	Sep-95	124.1		143		15.40
	Oct-95	122.2		143		16.97
	Nov-95	107.8		143		32.35
	Dec-95	97.4		142		46.20
	Jan-96	88.3		142		60.97
	Feb-96	96.0		142		47.77
	Mar-96	120.4		142		17.60
	Apr-96	140.1		141		0.88
	May-96	140.5		141		0.40
	Jun-96	131.4		141		7.15
	Jul-96	135.1		141		4.01
	Aug-96	129.1		140		8.64
	Sep-96	121.1		140		15.60
	Oct-96	123.7		140		12.94
	Nov-96	100.7		139		38.48
	Dec-96	99.2		139		40.30
	Jan-97	88.1		139		57.67
	Feb-97	94.1		139		47.33
	Mar-97	120.1		138		15.21
	Apr-97	137.2		138		0.67
	May-97	131.6		138		4.75
	Jun-97	133.6		138		2.98
	Jul-97	133.7		137		2.70
	Aug-97	126.0		137		8.77
	Sep-97	134.4		137		1.77
	Oct-97	135.5		136		0.74
	Nov-97	100.4		136		35.69
	Dec-97	106.4		136		27.78
	Jan-98	96.2		136		41.06
	Feb-98	107.4		135		26.09
	Mar-98	140.9		135		4.08
	Apr-98	146.3		135		7.79
	May-98	138.2		135		2.58
	Jun-98	153.4		134		12.41
	Jul-98	149.3		134		10.18
	Aug-98	144.7		134		7.51
	Sep-98	141.7		134		5.75
	Oct-98	149.8		133		11.02
	Nov-98	119.9		133		10.94
	Dec-98	124.5		133		6.63
	Jan-99	105.7		132		25.34
	Feb-99	114.7		132		15.27
	Mar-99	154.6		132		14.66
	Apr-99	151.8		132		13.25
	May-99	145.1		131		9.43
	Jun-99	169.3		131		22.53
	Jul-99	149.1		131		12.22
	Aug-99	151.9		131		14.01
	Sep-99	137.3		130		5.06
	Oct-99	137.6		130		5.47
	Nov-99	125.6		130		3.35
	Dec-99	120.9		130		7.14
	Jan-00	107.3		129		20.48
	Feb-00	121.8		129		5.91
	Mar-00	153.7		129		16.25
	Apr-00	138.9		128		7.51
	May-00	148.9		128		13.90
	Jun-00	155.1		128		17.52
	Jul-00	129.8		128		1.65
	Aug-00	146.8		127		13.22
	Sep-00	131.4		127		3.25
	Oct-00	134.8		127		5.90
	Nov-00	121.0		127		4.62
	Dec-00	102.9		126		22.75
	Jan-01	117.0		126		7.74
	Feb-01	114.3		126		10.04
	Mar-01	147.7		126		15.03
	Apr-01	148.6		125		15.71
	May-01	159.8		125		21.79
	Jun-01	153.9		125		18.96
	Jul-01	140.6		124		11.49
	Aug-01	151.4		124		17.98
	Sep-01	125.2		124		1.03
	Oct-01	140.2		124		11.81
	Nov-01	124.4		123		0.82
	Dec-01	113.6		123		8.36
	Jan-02	115.7		123		6.17
	Feb-02	122.5		123		0.05
	Mar-02	143.2		122		14.60
	Apr-02	156.0		122		21.77
	May-02	164.2		122		25.84
	Jun-02	158.0		122		23.10
	Jul-02	159.3		121		23.90
	Aug-02	153.7		121		21.29
	Sep-02	149.5		121		19.27
	Oct-02	162.9		120		26.07
	Nov-02	126.8		120		5.24
	Dec-02	135.8		120		11.72
	Jan-03	126.4		120		5.36
	Feb-03	128.5		119		7.12
	Mar-03	148.4		119		19.76
	Apr-03	167.6		119		29.10
	May-03	169.5		119		30.05
	Jun-03	175.8		118		32.71
	Jul-03	173.0		118		31.78
	Aug-03	169.9		118		30.69
	Sep-03	169.1		117		30.52
	Oct-03	182.8		117		35.88
	Nov-03	130.5		117		10.39
	Dec-03	147.9		117		21.11
	Jan-04	132.0		116		11.81
	Feb-04	137.1		116		15.29
	Mar-04	190.7		116		39.24
	Apr-04	192.5		116		39.94
	May-04	188.4		115		38.78
	Jun-04	197.1		115		41.62
	Jul-04	185.9		115		38.25
	Aug-04	185.2		115		38.16
	Sep-04	174.9		114		34.67
	Oct-04	174.5		114		34.68
	Nov-04	156.4		114		27.29
	Dec-04	155.2		113		26.90
	Jan-05	139.7		113		18.98
	Feb-05	149.4		113		24.42
	Mar-05	190.5		113		40.87
	Apr-05	193.2		112		41.82
	May-05	193.1		112		41.94
	Jun-05	211.9		112		47.21
	Jul-05	185.5		112		39.85
	Aug-05	208.0		111		46.48
	Sep-05	193.7		111		42.67
	Oct-05	176.0		111		37.06
	Nov-05	162.9		111		32.16
	Dec-05	151.3		110		27.14
	Jan-06	152.6		110		27.93
	Feb-06	151.0		110		27.35
	Mar-06	194.2		109		43.65
	Apr-06	168.6		109		35.24
	May-06	184.4		109		40.94
	Jun-06	184.2		109		41.02
	Jul-06	148.0		108		26.77
	Aug-06	161.2		108		32.93
	Sep-06	136.6		108		21.06
	Oct-06	133.1		108		19.19
	Nov-06	111.4		107		3.68
	Dec-06	113.6		107		5.79
	Jan-07	114.1		107		6.43
	Feb-07	112.1		106		5.01
	Mar-07	139.4		106		23.80
	Apr-07	130.9		106		19.05
	May-07	146.0		106		27.60
	Jun-07	135.6		105		22.25
	Jul-07	122.5		105		14.16
	Aug-07	126.0		105		16.75
	Sep-07	100.5		105		4.10
	Oct-07	103.8		104		0.53
	Nov-07	89.5		104		16.30
	Dec-07	77.8		104		33.44
	Jan-08	77.4		104		33.78
	Feb-08	75.0		103		37.70
	Mar-08	79.1		103		30.22
	Apr-08	91.5		103		12.29
	May-08	92.3		102		11.02
	Jun-08	110.6		102		7.59
	Jul-08	85.9		102		18.67
	Aug-08	76.3		102		33.26
	Sep-08	70.9		101		43.02
	Oct-08	63.7		101		58.76
	Nov-08	41.5		101		143.05
	Dec-08	41.2		101		144.15
	Jan-09	37.6		100		166.83
	Feb-09	39.2		100		155.24
	Mar-09	45.4		100		119.78
	Apr-09	47.8		100		108.23
	May-09	49.5		99		100.53
	Jun-09	61.3		99		61.50
	Jul-09	56.1		99		75.98
	Aug-09	54.0		98		82.33
	Sep-09	52.9		98		85.61
	Oct-09	47.9		98		104.41
	Nov-09	42.1		98		131.95
	Dec-09	49.2		97		97.92
	Jan-10	40.4		97		140.38
	Feb-10	45.3		97		113.78
	Mar-10	64.1		97		50.65
	Apr-10	58.9		96		63.53
	May-10	51.1		96		87.96
	Jun-10	59.2		96		61.80
	Jul-10	51.6		96		85.10
	Aug-10	53.7		95		77.37
	Sep-10	48.5		95		95.82
	Oct-10	43.5		95		117.70
	Nov-10	40.9		94		130.90
	Dec-10	47.6		94		97.82
	Jan-11	36.3		94		158.68
	Feb-11	37.7		94		148.35
	Mar-11	54.4		93		71.61
	Apr-11	50.7		93		83.65
	May-11	57.3		93		62.02
	Jun-11	63.8		93		45.10
	Jul-11	52.6		92		75.47
	Aug-11	62.6		92		47.02
	Sep-11	53.2		92		72.48
	Oct-11	52.0		91		75.94
	Nov-11	51.9		91		75.77
	Dec-11	51.6		91		76.26
	Jan-12	47.8		91		89.72
	Feb-12	53.5		90		69.00
	Mar-12	69.5		90		29.70
	Apr-12	64.1		90		40.23
	May-12	77.7		90		15.33
	Jun-12	75.9		89		17.

please submit the answer in excel fileThe fileDownload FinalQuestion3.xlsxcontains data on monthly U.S. permits for new housing units (in thousands of houses).Use simple exponential...

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