Table B.10 contains seven years of monthly data on the number of airline miles flown in the United Kingdom. This is seasonal data. a. Make a time series plot of the data and verify that it is...


Table B.10 contains seven years of monthly data on the number of airline miles flown in the United Kingdom. This is seasonal data.


a. Make a time series plot of the data and verify that it is seasonal.


b. Use Winters" multiplicative method for the first six years to develop a forecasting method for this data. How well does this smoothing procedure work?


c. Make one-step-ahead forecasts of the last 12 months. Determine the forecast errors. How well did your procedure work in forecasting the new data?



TABLE B. 10 United Kingdom Airline Miles Flown








































































































































































































































































Month



Miles (in millions)



Month



Miles (in millions)



Jan-1964



7.269



Jul-1967



12.222



Feb-1964



6.775



Aug-1967



12.246



Mar-1964



7.819



Sep-1967



13.281



Apr-1964



8.371



Oct-1967



10.366



May-1964



9.069



Nov-1967



8.730



Jun-1964



10.248



Dec-1967



9.614



Ju1-1964



11.030



Jan-1968



8.639



Aug-1964



10.882



Feb-1968



8.772



Sep-1964



10.333



Mar-1968



10.894



Oct-1964



9.109



Apr-1968



10.455



Nov-1964



7.685



May-1968



11.179



Dec-1964



7.682



Jun-1968



10.588



Jan-1965



8.350



Jul-1968



10.794



Feb-1965



7.829



Aug-1968



12.770



Mar-1965



8.829



Sep-1968



13.812



Apr-1965



9.948



Oct-1968



10.857



May-1965



10.638



Nov-1968



9.290



Jun-1965



11.253



Dec-1968



10.925



Jul-1965



11.424



Jan-1969



9.491



Aug-1965



11.391



Feb-1969



8.919



Sep-1965



10.665



Mar-1969



11.607



Oct-1965



9.396



Apr-1969



8.852



Nov-1965



7.775



May-1969



12.537



Dec-1965



7.933



Jun-1969



14.759



Jan-1966



8.186



Jul-1969



13.667



Feb-1966



7.444



Aug-1969



13.731



Mar-1966



8.484



Sep-1969



15.110



Apr-1966



9.864



Oct-1969



12.185



May-1966



10.252



Nov-1969



10.645



Jun-1966



12.282



Dec-1969



12.161



Ju1-1966



11.637



Jan-1970



10.840



Aug-1966



11.577



Feb-1970



10.436



Sep-1966



12.417



Mar-1970



13.589



Oct-1966



9.637



Apr-1970



13.402



Nov-1966



8.094



May-1970



13.103



Dec-1966



9.280



Jun-1970



14.933



Jan-1967



8.334



Ju1-1970



14.147



Feb-1967



7.899



Aug-1970



14.057



Mar-1967



9.994



Sep-1970



16.234



Apr-1967



10.078



Oct-1970



12.389



May-1967



10.801



Nov-1970



11.594



Jun-1967



12.953



Dec-1970



12.772


May 25, 2022
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