Answer To: The questions are in the File
Rochak answered on Aug 11 2022
Answer 1:
a. 2-period moving average
Week
Actual Sales
2-period moving average
1
1486
2
1345
3
1455
1,415.50
4
1386
1,400.00
5
1209
1,420.50
6
1178
1,297.50
7
1581
1,193.50
8
1332
1,379.50
9
1245
1,456.50
10
1521
1,288.50
11
1544
1,383.00
12
1502
1,532.50
13
1856
1,523.00
14
1753
1,679.00
15
1789
1,804.50
16
1,771.00
3-period moving average
Week
Actual Sales
3-period moving average
1
1486
2
1345
3
1455
4
1386
1,428.67
5
1209
1,395.33
6
1178
1,350.00
7
1581
1,257.67
8
1332
1,322.67
9
1245
1,363.67
10
1521
1,386.00
11
1544
1,366.00
12
1502
1,436.67
13
1856
1,522.33
14
1753
1,634.00
15
1789
1,703.67
16
1,799.33
b. MSE
2-period moving average
Week
Actual Sales
2-period moving average
Error
Squared Error
1
1486
-
-
2
1345
-
-
3
1455
1,415.50
39.50
1,560.25
4
1386
1,400.00
(14.00)
196.00
5
1209
1,420.50
(211.50)
44,732.25
6
1178
1,297.50
(119.50)
14,280.25
7
1581
1,193.50
387.50
1,50,156.25
8
1332
1,379.50
(47.50)
2,256.25
9
1245
1,456.50
(211.50)
44,732.25
10
1521
1,288.50
232.50
54,056.25
11
1544
1,383.00
161.00
25,921.00
12
1502
1,532.50
(30.50)
930.25
13
1856
1,523.00
333.00
1,10,889.00
14
1753
1,679.00
74.00
5,476.00
15
1789
1,804.50
(15.50)
240.25
16
1,771.00
-
-
Sum
4,55,426.25
MSE
28,464.14
3-period moving average
Week
Actual Sales
3-period moving average
Error
Squared Error
1
1486
-
-
2
1345
-
-
3
1455
-
-
4
1386
1,428.67
(42.67)
1,820.44
5
1209
1,395.33
(186.33)
34,720.11
6
1178
1,350.00
(172.00)
29,584.00
7
1581
1,257.67
323.33
1,04,544.44
8
1332
1,322.67
9.33
87.11
9
1245
1,363.67
(118.67)
14,081.78
10
1521
1,386.00
135.00
18,225.00
11
1544
1,366.00
178.00
31,684.00
12
1502
1,436.67
65.33
4,268.44
13
1856
1,522.33
333.67
1,11,333.44
14
1753
1,634.00
119.00
14,161.00
15
1789
1,703.67
85.33
7,281.78
16
1,799.33
-
-
Sum
3,71,791.56
MSE
23,236.97
c.
Based on MSE, the model with a 3-period moving average provides the best forecast because it considers more observations and therefore better forecast.
Answer 2:
a.
Month
Demand for Bronze Bearings
3-month moving average
1
50
2
100
3
60
4
80
70.00
5
140
80.00
6
100
93.33
7
90
106.67
8
120
110.00
9
103.33
b.
Month
Demand for Bronze Bearings
3-month weighted average
1
50
2
100
3
60
4
80
72.00
5
140
75.80
6
100
110.60
7
90
110.80
8
120
99.30
9
107.70
c.
3-month moving average MAD
Month
Demand for Bronze Bearings
3-month moving average
|Error|
1
50
2
100
3
60
4
80
70.00
10.00
5
140
80.00
60.00
6
100
93.33
6.67
7
90
106.67
16.67
8
120
110.00
10.00
9
103.33
103.33
Sum
206.67
MAD
34.44
3-month weighted average MAD
Month
Demand for Bronze Bearings
3-month weighted...