Victoria Yates WednesdayJun 29 at 9:04pmManage Discussion Entry What could you use the Delphi Method to find out in a topic that you are interested in? Who would you want to obtain as your expert...

Victoria Yates

What could you use the Delphi Method to find out in a topic that you are interested in? Who would you want to obtain as your expert participants?

Like it states in

Okoli, C., & Pawlowski, S. D. (2004). The Delphi method as a research tool: An example, design considerations and applications. Information & Management, 42

The Delphi method has proven a popular tool in information systems research for identifying and prioritizing issues for managerial decision-making. However, many past studies have not adopted a systematic approach to conducting a Delphi study.

The Delphi method originated in a series of studies that the RAND Corporation conducted in the 1950’s. The objective was to develop a technique to obtain the most reliable consensus of a group of experts [8]. While researchers have developed variations of the method since its introduction, Linstone and Turoff [17] captured common characteristics in this description: “Delphi may be characterized as a method for structuring a group communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem. To accomplish this “structured communication” there is provided: some feedback of individual contributions of information and knowledge; some assessment of the group judgment or view; some opportunity for individuals to revise views; and some degree of anonymity for the individual responses.” Delphi researchers employ this method primarily in cases where judgmental information is indispensable, and typically use a series of questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback [33]. A key advantage of the approach is that it avoids direct confrontation of the experts.

I mean using this method could help my topic by having it as a problem solving tool. I want to understand why retention is so low in people wanting to stay at their jobs as well why job satisfaction is also not a priority. This tool could help me problem solve the whys. I feel like my expert participants would be people from my jobs I have worked for in the past as well as upper management interviews can help the process too since they have more than likely been at the company for a longer period than myself.

References

Okoli, C., & Pawlowski, S. D. (2004). The Delphi method as a research tool: An example, design considerations and applications. Information & Management, 42(1), 15-29. doi:10.1016/j.im.2003.11.002. Retrieved from http://spectrum.library.concordia.ca/976864/1/OkoliPawlowski2004DelphiPostprint.pdf (Links to an external site.) (Links to an external site.)

Renalta Smith

Delphi is applied to many studies and can be used to accomplish a range of possible program alternatives. The Delphi Technique is a method used to estimate the likelihood and outcome of future events. The Delphi method pursues to accumulate opinions from various professionals, and it can be done without bringing everyone together for a physical meeting. The responses of the participants are anonymous. The agreement can get reached over time as opinions are persuaded, making the method very effective. The technique also explores the underlying assumptions leading to different judgments. The process receives used to seek out information that may generate a consensus on the part of the respondent group and to compare different opinions on a topic (Hsu,2007).

Thanks,

Renalta

Reference

Hsu, C., & Sandford, B. A. (2007). The Delphi technique: Making sense of consensus.Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, 12(10). Retrieved from
http://pareonline.net/pdf/v12n10.pdf

Paulette Morris

The Delphi Method

The Delphi method was formerly introduced in the 1950s as an approach to forecasting the effect that technology had on warfare. The Delphi Method is also referred to as the Estimate Estimate-talk-Estimate technique (ETE) and is a systematic qualitative method of research used for forecasting by gathering opinions from a group panel of experts employing several rounds of questions. The selected panelist is experts on the topic or issue and is selected based on their expertise. Currently, this method has been introduced into the fields of management, education, environmental science, and health care(Hsu & Sandford, 2007, Okoli & Pawlowski, 2004, & Skulmoski et al.,2007). The Delphi Method is a process employed in research with the purpose of arriving at a group consensus. The group forms an opinion or makes a unanimous decision on a topic by taking a survey of an expert-filled panel. The panel of experts provides a response to a set of reciprocated questionnaires provided to them in several rounds(Hsu & Sandford, 2007, Okoli & Pawlowski, 2004, & Skulmoski et al.,2007). The combined responses are shared among the group after each succeeding round.

The Delphi technique or method is a form of communication that is deemed to be structured and was initially created as a systematic interactive approach to research that relies upon a panel of experts. The Delphi Method can be adapted to face-to-face conversations but typically does not include one-on-one communication. When it is adopted in a face-to-face format it is referred to as a mini-Delphi or Estimate talk Estimate(Hsu & Sandford, 2007, Okoli & Pawlowski, 2004, & Skulmoski et al.,2007). The Delphi Method is a form of a consensus method and is used in health sciences predominantly by researchers when there is incomplete knowledge of a subject or a level of uncertainty. The method is also used in research when there are no other methods that can be used for providing a higher level of evidence(Hsu & Sandford, 2007, Okoli & Pawlowski, 2004, & Skulmoski et al.,2007). The objective of the Delphi Method is to gather judgments that are based on the expertise of a set of experts and to have the experts provide identification of the consensus in research.

Currently, technology is employed to provide consensus by having a group of experts utilizes online tools as an expert lens to answer questionnaires and provide feedback that is reflective of the response of the group. These online tools are also used for discussions, and revisions of the group’s answers to develop an understanding of the capacity to approach an expert consensus. The Delphi Method is used for forecasting in research(Hsu & Sandford, 2007, Okoli & Pawlowski, 2004, & Skulmoski et al.,2007). The method relies upon panels of experts with proficient knowledge pertaining to a specific topic or issue. The panel of experts is used to forecast outcomes or any scenarios that may arise in the future. Experts predict the possibility of an event occurring or even reoccurring and for reaching a consensus pertaining to a single topic(Hsu & Sandford, 2007, Okoli & Pawlowski, 2004, & Skulmoski et al.,2007). The ideas are generated by the knowledge of the participating experts and is deemed to be appropriate for exploring the topic that is being debated or that is controversial or lacking clarity.

What could you use the Delphi Method to find out about a topic that you are interested in?

The Delphi Method is known to be a useful tool in education for the formation of standards, guidelines, and the prediction of trends. It has been employed for addressing cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit analysis, school-wide educational objectives and goals, and cost-benefit analysis. Delphi researchers use current literature, institutional research, and the school environment for reconciling the consensus (Green, 2014). The use of the Delphi Method serves as a solid foundation for research practices that are responsible. Research suggests that certain skills and factors obtained at the preschool level predict later success in kindergarten and school performance in the later years. Using the Delphi Method would help identify any gaps that exist between learning and instruction that occur in the preschool years and kindergarten and identify trends that exist between this learning and instruction and school readiness. The identification of these gaps will possibly inform the curriculum used in the early years. The use of the Delphi Method could be used for identifying skills and factors that are relative to school readiness and which factors and skills are more significant aspects of school readiness. The technique can be employed in research for forecasting the number of children that will potentially lack school readiness skills and the potential of future achievement gaps among certain populations of children such as children attending programs versus none at all and children in private versus public preschool environments.

The technique can shed light on which factors are deemed by early childhood educators at the prekindergarten and kindergarten levels to be most essential to kindergarten readiness. These skills include but are not limited to academic, social, emotional, cognitive, or other areas of development. The method can be used to determine which skills have significant incorporation in the curriculum used in prekindergarten programs by educators. Using the Delphi Method can also explain if the curriculum in preschools is in alignment with the curriculum at the kindergarten level and for identifying any trends that may co-exist in the number of children that come to kindergarten ready and not ready based on the attendance in preschool. The Delphi Method can evidence the differences in the readiness in academic abilities among children enrolled in preschool programs versus no program at all and children enrolled in the varied types of preschool programs such as private versus public, childcare centers, and programs operated by churches and other organizations and home-based programs.

Who would you want to obtain as your expert participants?

Experts are those having proficient knowledge of the topic being discussed. A panel of experts must be knowledgeable of the topic and have a level of expertise (Green, 2014, Hsu & Sandford, 2007, Okoli & Pawlowski, 2004, & Skulmoski et al.,2007). The Delphi Method is very useful when educators are trying to develop the curricula and learning experiences that will prepare children for academic success and future careers. The studies will be helpful when they coordinate with other types of research grounded in theory to determine the curricula needs of students. According to Green, 2014 Hammer (1966) indicates that when the decision on policies and plans must be made on informed judgment, the Delphi Method should be applied. The method should be applied to any decision-making process. When the formulation of plans and policies is contingent upon the opinions of an expert, it is of significance to understand the fallacies that can be presented when judgment is done by humans (Green, 2014). However, despite the potential fallacies that can occur from obtaining the advice from panelists of experts, the use of the Delphi Method can provide substantial insight from an expert panel of educators for the development of curricula, standards, guidelines, policies, and the determination of future trends. It is important to synthesize the opinion of the experts in conjunction with the opinions of existing opinions to create research-based on expert opinion (Green, 2014). The researcher should establish the qualifications and number of panelists necessary to form the consensus.

To complete research on my topic the necessary experts are those with a proficient aptitude in the field of early childhood education. My experts would be early childhood educators predominately at the pre-kindergarten to kindergarten level and no higher than the third-grade level. I could also use individuals that write the curriculum, state policy leaders, stakeholders in education, policymakers in education, and early childhood education organization leaders. But mainly my experts would be a panel of early childhood educators and curriculum designers.

References

Green, R. A. (2014). The Delphi Technique in Educational Research.SAGE Open.https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244014529773(Links to an external site.)

Hsu, C., & Sandford, B. A. (2007). The Delphi technique: Making sense of consensus.Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, 12(10). Retrieved from
http://pareonline.net/pdf/v12n10.pdf(Links to an external site.)(Links to an external site.)

Okoli, C., & Pawlowski, S. D. (2004). The Delphi method as a research tool: An example, design considerations, and applications.Information & Management,42(1), 15-29. doi:10.1016/j.im.2003.11.002

http://spectrum.library.concordia.ca/976864/1/OkoliPawlowski2004DelphiPostprint.pdf(Links to an external site.)(Links to an external site.)

Skulmoski, G. J., Hartman, F. T., & Krahn, J. (2007). The Delphi method for graduate research.Journal of Information Technology Education, 6, 1-21.
http://www.editlib.org/p/111405/(Links to an external site.)