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Solar PV and battery optimisation (15%) Download the household scale solar PV-battery spreadsheet model from Moodle. Describe how the model works, and how it could be improved. · Optimise the PV array size for the 'stay at home' load and no battery. · Add a 14kWh Tesla Powerwall (enter "14" in the battery size cell). · Re-optimise the PV array, then find what the battery needs to cost for this to be a sensible investment. Repeat this process for different demand profiles, battery sizes, feed in tariffs, costs of capital and any other input assumptions you'd like to test. What do you learn about the range of costs that batteries need to get to? Use graphs, tables. Shouldn't be much need for references, but as usual, cite any reference material you use. Word limit: 1500. Submit as a PDF file (not excel or word) Page limit: 15 pages Marking rubric: · Clear understanding of how the model works and its shortcomings (30%) · Design of experiments (i.e. different input assumptions) (20%) · Clear descriptions of the results (20%) · Concise understanding of the implications (20%). · Structure and references (10%) FileNewTemplate RSE3141 Solar Energy Energy Markets, Storage and Integration Roger Dargaville (
[email protected]) Resources Engineering 1 Building integrated energy systems Energy markets Generation mix Transmission Demand-side management Storage Storage Basic concepts Batteries Pumped hydro Other forms Integration Optimal mix of generation, storage and transmission assets for a low carbon future What’s coming up rest of semester Week 9: Active and passive solar design Building better buildings Week 10: Connecting to the grid Guest lecture from Reza Razzaghi (Elec Eng) Week 11: Siting solar PV projects Guest lecture from Steve Phillips Week 12: Wrap up and research lecture Overview 2 https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2021/03/18/south-australian-rooftop-solar-switched-off-in-search-for-stability/ Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) currently finalising a rule change that will see PV prevented from feeding into the grid when residual demand is very low Will allow more PV onto the grid May incentive more batteries https://www.aemc.gov.au/news-centre/media-releases/new-plan-make-room-grid-more-home-solar-and-batteries Role of PV and batteries is very topical at the moment Supply and demand must be perfectly matched all the time The market operator predicts what the demand for the next time period will be Based on time of day and year, weather, included rooftop PV (behind the meter) Generators ‘bid in’ their capacity Related to their operational expenditure The market operator directs which generators should dispatch and how much Takes into account the costs Flexibility Transmission constraints Error in the forecast and possible system faults – extra ‘spinning reserve’ How does the electrical energy market work? GW demand in Victoria for Heatwave in Jan 2014 ‘Normal’ week Base-load Intermediate Peak Coal Gas Hydro Wind Jan 2014 Extreme and mild examples https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=7d&interval=30m Demand has evolved to match the supply characteristics – cheap off peak power, deals for large continuous users, large industrial use. Potential for efficiency, load shifting to change the shape to match a different mix is there. System cannot operate with baseload alone – requirement for peaking capacity to follow large swings in demand 5 TechnologyCarbon IntensityDispatchabilityRamp ratesCost HydroLOW_MEDIUMYES*FASTMEDIUM NuclearSLOWYESSLOWHIGH CoalHIGHYESSLOWMEDIUM Gas - CCGTMEDIUMYESMEDIUMLOW-MEDIUM Gas - OCGTMEDIUM-HIGHYESFASTLOW Wind turbinesLOWNO-LOW Solar PVLOWNO-LOW Solar thermalLOWYESMEDIUMHIGH Electricity options and characteristics * Subject to drought Generator typeStart from coldStart from hotSpinning from low to high Coal - Brown24-48 hours~6 hours1-2 hours Coal - Black12-24 hours~4-6 hours1-2 hours Gas - CCGT4-6 hours1-2 hours~ 10 minutes Gas - OCGT1-2 hours1-2 minutes<1 minute hydro1-2 minutes5-30 seconds1-10 seconds start up and ramp rates specific to each generator – some may be quicker or slower depending on configuration electricity generation capacity mix in the nem nsw1 black coalbrown coalocgtgas - steamccgtdieselreciprocatinghydrobioenergywindpv10240013880620178.7153.800000000000012650.55108.211650.981563.2972119999999qld1 black coalbrown coalocgtgas - steamccgtdieselreciprocatinghydrobioenergywindpv81490164201210454173.76618327.96121789.0585779999981sa1black coalbrown coalocgtgas - steamccgtdieselreciprocatinghydrobioenergywindpv0073012806582669.92.5131473.45755.76023500000088tas1black coalbrown coalocgtgas - steamccgtdieselreciprocatinghydrobioenergywindpv001630208224022612308105.116405vic1black coalbrown coalocgtgas - steamccgtdieselreciprocatinghydrobioenergywindpv06290186450000132237.6551.1520000000000081242.40000000000011080.6378609999999https://www.aemc.gov.au/energy-system/electricity/electricity-market/spot-and-contract-markets https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/content//five-minute-settlement-directions-paper-fact-sheet-final.pdf what is the spot market? what is the contract market? swaps caps https://www.asx.com.au/products/energy-derivatives/australian-electricity.htm how does the electricity market work (australia) how the market works spot price is determined based of the demand and the bids of the generators market ‘settles’ based on these prices market corrects based on the contract market the price the consumer pays is only partly driven by the spot market price for electricity but it also includes network costs retail mark-up green certification (renewable energy certificates) carbon costs (not at the moment) network cost (”poles and wires”) make up the biggest portion (not energy). relating the wholesale (spot market) price to the retail price trends in electricity prices (indexed to 2015) and projections https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/demand-forecasts/efi/jacobs-retail-electricity-price-history-and-projections_final-public-report-june-2017.pdf?la=en&hash=7a21136f67086a90d182a43f81bccbbe since 2007, prices have increased around 60% most of the increase occurred between 2007 and 2015 around 20-30% is generation ~15% is retailer chargers ~50% is network charges transmission system is a natural monopoly needs to be regulated regulated markets can be poorly managed overly generous – too expensive not generous enough – lack of capacity what makes up your electricity bill? http://www.ipart.nsw.gov.au/ breakdown of bills for different states in australia https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/demand-forecasts/efi/jacobs-retail-electricity-price-history-and-projections_final-public-report-june-2017.pdf?la=en&hash=7a21136f67086a90d182a43f81bccbbe contribution of different factors to decrease in demand 2009-2013 https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/power-down-ii-australias-electricity-demand/ main reason for decrease is energy efficiency light bulbs motors air conditioning/ refrigeration other important reasons are price effects lower than expected growth industrial closures (e.g. car industry, aluminium) generation trend (2005-2020) (gwh/yr) 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 why use energy storage? what are the technologies? hydro batteries compressed air fly wheel costs? energy storage hornsdale power reserve (south australia) aka tesla big battery impact of storage on energy systems thanks to rob clinch @ arup have a look at opennem.org.au transformers transmission distribution generation sub station commercial and industrial customers residential customers storage storage storage storage storage grid stabilisation renewable storage peak load relief ups and arbitrage domestic arbitrage storage applications in the grid pumped hydro (180gw) chemical and flow batteries flywheels thermal storage systems storage technologies – global capacity https://www.sandia.gov/ess/global-energy-storage-database/ 20 [category name] [category name] compressed air energy storageelectro-chemicalelectro-mechanicalhydrogen storageliquid air energy storagelithium ion batterythermal storagepumped hydro storage8410329717826006882048553507541203275126181190506 [category name] [category name] [category name] compressed air energy storageelectro-chemicalelectro-mechanicalhydrogen storageliquid air energy storagelithium ion batterythermal storage8410329717826006882048553507541203275126 pumped hydro simple reversal of the hydro system. works with francis type turbines okinawa pumped seawater system australia currently has 3 pumped hydro systems, tumut 3 (660 mw), shoalhaven (240mw) and wivenhoe (500mw) used in conjunction with a gas fired turbine – improves efficiency by a factor of 3 pumps compress air underground when power is cheap compressed air storage 2 utility scale projects running – 290 mw huntorf plant, (germany) and 110 mw plant in mcintosh (alabama) work by storing energy in chemical bonds. lead acid invented in 1859 (planté), refined by fauré (1881) typically designed for small appliances (i.e. li-ion in laptops) or short sharp usage (i.e. car battery) more recently for transport (evs) and energy storage lots of different types lead acid lithium ion sodium/sulfur vanadium-redox flow electro-chemical batteries pb + pbo2 + 2h2so4 2pbso4 + 2h2o flywheels store energy as angular momentum best suited to storage periods of 1 second to 10 minutes the flywheel case is designed with a shield to contain a failed rotor and its pieces if it shatters and blows up batteries are much cheaper than flywheel systems (moving parts) but flywheels can charge/discharge many more times flywheels 070403 images courtesy of beacon power source: www.ecolectic.org 24 compressed h2 and ng storage hydrogen storage – well proven produce h2 by electrolysis of water (or from fossil fuel, but that’s not sustainable!) h2 pressures range from 2000 to 10,000 psi cng (compressed natural gas) is stored at 3000 psi nh4 (ammonia) another possible medium key issue is efficiency of producing hydrogen and gas compression and then efficiency of electricity production 25 thermal storage can be stored for days potential for additional storage from off the grid expensive infrastructure molten salt integrated into csp 3 main stages: liquefaction, storage, and power recovery liquid air energy storage pilot plant: highview power storage (slough, uk) 300kw – planning 10mw system now round-trip efficiency (rte) of the system: 8-12% (with 60c waste heat) but claim they can get an efficiency of 60% in the 10mw plant capital cost storage capacity and discharge times cost per discharge i.e. how much do i need to store for how long, how many times will it cycle? which storage system to choose? 29 lots of different technologies with different characteristics capacity, power, response time, cost pumped hydro most favourable for medium response speed storage, but needs appropriate hydrology and geography. caes also has geological constraints battery technologies evolving as incentives improve (i.e. higher penetration of re leading to more variability in energy systems) storage summary demand-side management can alter demand patterns shape load new users for off-peak shift load off-peak hot water reduce load efficiencies increase load electric vehicles http://siteresources.worldbank.org/intenergy/resources/primerondemand-sidemanagement.pdf what will the electrical energy system of the future look like?depends on: the target we aim to hit (50, 80 or 100% emission abatement?) cost of technologies resource availability role of storage and demand side management where, when and how much of what technologies should be built? assumes a centrally run, well coordinated energy system… least cost system modelling demand has evolved to match the supply characteristics – cheap off peak power, deals for large continuous users, large industrial use. potential for efficiency, load shifting to change the shape to match a different mix is there. system cannot operate with baseload alone – requirement for peaking capacity to follow large swings in demand 35 broad range of technologies available conventional technologies coal, gas, nuclear – reliable, but come with emissions + risk established renewables wind, solar pv, hydro – low carbon but intermittent/constrained emerging renewables concentrating solar thermal, wave, geothermal, biomass, biogas – expensive storage – phes and distributed batteries plus need to worry about transmission, security of supply, voltage and frequency stability things to consider build a simulation tool of the nem of medium complexity run an optimisation routine to find the least cost combination for a given emission reduction target. model considers hourly variability, discount rate (10%) and other scenarios (low discount, higher non-synchronous allowances…) considers the transition (not just a snap shot in 2050) approach modelling setup find the least cost total system cost for a combination of generation technologies for 100% emission abatement by 2050 (other targets also possible) broad range of technologies considered (technology agnostic) coal (brown and black coal), gas (ocgt and ccgt) hydro, wind, solar concentrating solar thermal, carbon capture and storage (ccs), bioenergy, pumped hydro energy storage (phes) at same time consider transmission constraints and costs of additional transmission capacity hourly economic dispatch model, inertia constraints, ramp rates, unit commitment we run 8 hours of storage for both phes and csp discount rate: 10% electrification of transport 1.4 times demand increase by 2050 cf to 2013 build cost ($/kw) real 2017 dollars (2018-2050) from csiro cost projections used in the aemo’s isp (integrated system plan) technology cost scenarios csp ($kw)phes ($/kw) year2018205020182050 slow4434331218601860 neutral4434219013861077 rapid44341068800800 run various combinations of slow, neutral and rapid for the two technologies. minute="" hydro="" 1-2="" minutes="" 5-30="" seconds="" 1-10="" seconds="" start="" up="" and="" ramp="" rates="" specific="" to="" each="" generator="" –="" some="" may="" be="" quicker="" or="" slower="" depending="" on="" configuration="" electricity="" generation="" capacity="" mix="" in="" the="" nem="" nsw1="" black="" coal="" brown="" coal="" ocgt="" gas="" -="" steam="" ccgt="" diesel="" reciprocating="" hydro="" bioenergy="" wind="" pv="" 10240="" 0="" 1388="" 0="" 620="" 178.7="" 153.80000000000001="" 2650.55="" 108.211="" 650.98="" 1563.2972119999999="" qld1="" black="" coal="" brown="" coal="" ocgt="" gas="" -="" steam="" ccgt="" diesel="" reciprocating="" hydro="" bioenergy="" wind="" pv="" 8149="" 0="" 1642="" 0="" 1210="" 454="" 173.76="" 618="" 327.96="" 12="" 1789.0585779999981="" sa1="" black="" coal="" brown="" coal="" ocgt="" gas="" -="" steam="" ccgt="" diesel="" reciprocating="" hydro="" bioenergy="" wind="" pv="" 0="" 0="" 730="" 1280="" 658="" 266="" 9.9="" 2.5="" 13="" 1473.45="" 755.76023500000088="" tas1="" black="" coal="" brown="" coal="" ocgt="" gas="" -="" steam="" ccgt="" diesel="" reciprocating="" hydro="" bioenergy="" wind="" pv="" 0="" 0="" 163="" 0="" 208="" 224="" 0="" 2261="" 2="" 308="" 105.116405="" vic1="" black="" coal="" brown="" coal="" ocgt="" gas="" -="" steam="" ccgt="" diesel="" reciprocating="" hydro="" bioenergy="" wind="" pv="" 0="" 6290="" 1864="" 500="" 0="" 0="" 13="" 2237.65="" 51.152000000000008="" 1242.4000000000001="" 1080.6378609999999="" https://www.aemc.gov.au/energy-system/electricity/electricity-market/spot-and-contract-markets="" https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/content//five-minute-settlement-directions-paper-fact-sheet-final.pdf="" what="" is="" the="" spot="" market?="" what="" is="" the="" contract="" market?="" swaps="" caps="" https://www.asx.com.au/products/energy-derivatives/australian-electricity.htm="" how="" does="" the="" electricity="" market="" work="" (australia)="" how="" the="" market="" works="" spot="" price="" is="" determined="" based="" of="" the="" demand="" and="" the="" bids="" of="" the="" generators="" market="" ‘settles’="" based="" on="" these="" prices="" market="" corrects="" based="" on="" the="" contract="" market="" the="" price="" the="" consumer="" pays="" is="" only="" partly="" driven="" by="" the="" spot="" market="" price="" for="" electricity="" but="" it="" also="" includes="" network="" costs="" retail="" mark-up="" green="" certification="" (renewable="" energy="" certificates)="" carbon="" costs="" (not="" at="" the="" moment)="" network="" cost="" (”poles="" and="" wires”)="" make="" up="" the="" biggest="" portion="" (not="" energy).="" relating="" the="" wholesale="" (spot="" market)="" price="" to="" the="" retail="" price="" trends="" in="" electricity="" prices="" (indexed="" to="" 2015)="" and="" projections="" https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/demand-forecasts/efi/jacobs-retail-electricity-price-history-and-projections_final-public-report-june-2017.pdf?la="en&hash=7A21136F67086A90D182A43F81BCCBBE" since="" 2007,="" prices="" have="" increased="" around="" 60%="" most="" of="" the="" increase="" occurred="" between="" 2007="" and="" 2015="" around="" 20-30%="" is="" generation="" ~15%="" is="" retailer="" chargers="" ~50%="" is="" network="" charges="" transmission="" system="" is="" a="" natural="" monopoly="" needs="" to="" be="" regulated="" regulated="" markets="" can="" be="" poorly="" managed="" overly="" generous="" –="" too="" expensive="" not="" generous="" enough="" –="" lack="" of="" capacity="" what="" makes="" up="" your="" electricity="" bill?="" http://www.ipart.nsw.gov.au/="" breakdown="" of="" bills="" for="" different="" states="" in="" australia="" https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/demand-forecasts/efi/jacobs-retail-electricity-price-history-and-projections_final-public-report-june-2017.pdf?la="en&hash=7A21136F67086A90D182A43F81BCCBBE" contribution="" of="" different="" factors="" to="" decrease="" in="" demand="" 2009-2013="" https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/power-down-ii-australias-electricity-demand/="" main="" reason="" for="" decrease="" is="" energy="" efficiency="" light="" bulbs="" motors="" air="" conditioning/="" refrigeration="" other="" important="" reasons="" are="" price="" effects="" lower="" than="" expected="" growth="" industrial="" closures="" (e.g.="" car="" industry,="" aluminium)="" generation="" trend="" (2005-2020)="" (gwh/yr)="" 100000="" 80000="" 60000="" 40000="" 20000="" 2005="" 2007="" 2009="" 2011="" 2013="" 2015="" 2017="" 2019="" why="" use="" energy="" storage?="" what="" are="" the="" technologies?="" hydro="" batteries="" compressed="" air="" fly="" wheel="" costs?="" energy="" storage="" hornsdale="" power="" reserve="" (south="" australia)="" aka="" tesla="" big="" battery="" impact="" of="" storage="" on="" energy="" systems="" thanks="" to="" rob="" clinch="" @="" arup="" have="" a="" look="" at="" opennem.org.au="" transformers="" transmission="" distribution="" generation="" sub="" station="" commercial="" and="" industrial="" customers="" residential="" customers="" storage="" storage="" storage="" storage="" storage="" grid="" stabilisation="" renewable="" storage="" peak="" load="" relief="" ups="" and="" arbitrage="" domestic="" arbitrage="" storage="" applications="" in="" the="" grid="" pumped="" hydro="" (180gw)="" chemical="" and="" flow="" batteries="" flywheels="" thermal="" storage="" systems="" storage="" technologies="" –="" global="" capacity="" https://www.sandia.gov/ess/global-energy-storage-database/="" 20="" [category="" name]="" [category="" name]="" compressed="" air="" energy="" storage="" electro-chemical="" electro-mechanical="" hydrogen="" storage="" liquid="" air="" energy="" storage="" lithium="" ion="" battery="" thermal="" storage="" pumped="" hydro="" storage="" 8410="" 3297178="" 2600688="" 20485="" 5350="" 754120="" 3275126="" 181190506="" [category="" name]="" [category="" name]="" [category="" name]="" compressed="" air="" energy="" storage="" electro-chemical="" electro-mechanical="" hydrogen="" storage="" liquid="" air="" energy="" storage="" lithium="" ion="" battery="" thermal="" storage="" 8410="" 3297178="" 2600688="" 20485="" 5350="" 754120="" 3275126="" pumped="" hydro="" simple="" reversal="" of="" the="" hydro="" system.="" works="" with="" francis="" type="" turbines="" okinawa="" pumped="" seawater="" system="" australia="" currently="" has="" 3="" pumped="" hydro="" systems,="" tumut="" 3="" (660="" mw),="" shoalhaven="" (240mw)="" and="" wivenhoe="" (500mw)="" used="" in="" conjunction="" with="" a="" gas="" fired="" turbine="" –="" improves="" efficiency="" by="" a="" factor="" of="" 3="" pumps="" compress="" air="" underground="" when="" power="" is="" cheap="" compressed="" air="" storage="" 2="" utility="" scale="" projects="" running="" –="" 290="" mw="" huntorf="" plant,="" (germany)="" and="" 110="" mw="" plant="" in="" mcintosh="" (alabama)="" work="" by="" storing="" energy="" in="" chemical="" bonds.="" lead="" acid="" invented="" in="" 1859="" (planté),="" refined="" by="" fauré="" (1881)="" typically="" designed="" for="" small="" appliances="" (i.e.="" li-ion="" in="" laptops)="" or="" short="" sharp="" usage="" (i.e.="" car="" battery)="" more="" recently="" for="" transport="" (evs)="" and="" energy="" storage="" lots="" of="" different="" types="" lead="" acid="" lithium="" ion="" sodium/sulfur="" vanadium-redox="" flow="" electro-chemical="" batteries="" pb="" +="" pbo2="" +="" 2h2so4="" 2pbso4="" +="" 2h2o="" flywheels="" store="" energy="" as="" angular="" momentum="" best="" suited="" to="" storage="" periods="" of="" 1="" second="" to="" 10="" minutes="" the="" flywheel="" case="" is="" designed="" with="" a="" shield="" to="" contain="" a="" failed="" rotor="" and="" its="" pieces="" if="" it="" shatters="" and="" blows="" up="" batteries="" are="" much="" cheaper="" than="" flywheel="" systems="" (moving="" parts)="" but="" flywheels="" can="" charge/discharge="" many="" more="" times="" flywheels="" 070403="" images="" courtesy="" of="" beacon="" power="" source:="" www.ecolectic.org="" 24="" compressed="" h2="" and="" ng="" storage="" hydrogen="" storage="" –="" well="" proven="" produce="" h2="" by="" electrolysis="" of="" water="" (or="" from="" fossil="" fuel,="" but="" that’s="" not="" sustainable!)="" h2="" pressures="" range="" from="" 2000="" to="" 10,000="" psi="" cng="" (compressed="" natural="" gas)="" is="" stored="" at="" 3000="" psi="" nh4="" (ammonia)="" another="" possible="" medium="" key="" issue="" is="" efficiency="" of="" producing="" hydrogen="" and="" gas="" compression="" and="" then="" efficiency="" of="" electricity="" production="" 25="" thermal="" storage="" can="" be="" stored="" for="" days="" potential="" for="" additional="" storage="" from="" off="" the="" grid="" expensive="" infrastructure="" molten="" salt="" integrated="" into="" csp="" 3="" main="" stages:="" liquefaction,="" storage,="" and="" power="" recovery="" liquid="" air="" energy="" storage="" pilot="" plant:="" highview="" power="" storage="" (slough,="" uk)="" 300kw="" –="" planning="" 10mw="" system="" now="" round-trip="" efficiency="" (rte)="" of="" the="" system:="" 8-12%="" (with="" 60c="" waste="" heat)="" but="" claim="" they="" can="" get="" an="" efficiency="" of="" 60%="" in="" the="" 10mw="" plant="" capital="" cost="" storage="" capacity="" and="" discharge="" times="" cost="" per="" discharge="" i.e.="" how="" much="" do="" i="" need="" to="" store="" for="" how="" long,="" how="" many="" times="" will="" it="" cycle?="" which="" storage="" system="" to="" choose?="" 29="" lots="" of="" different="" technologies="" with="" different="" characteristics="" capacity,="" power,="" response="" time,="" cost="" pumped="" hydro="" most="" favourable="" for="" medium="" response="" speed="" storage,="" but="" needs="" appropriate="" hydrology="" and="" geography.="" caes="" also="" has="" geological="" constraints="" battery="" technologies="" evolving="" as="" incentives="" improve="" (i.e.="" higher="" penetration="" of="" re="" leading="" to="" more="" variability="" in="" energy="" systems)="" storage="" summary="" demand-side="" management="" can="" alter="" demand="" patterns="" shape="" load="" new="" users="" for="" off-peak="" shift="" load="" off-peak="" hot="" water="" reduce="" load="" efficiencies="" increase="" load="" electric="" vehicles="" http://siteresources.worldbank.org/intenergy/resources/primerondemand-sidemanagement.pdf="" what="" will="" the="" electrical="" energy="" system="" of="" the="" future="" look="" like?="" depends="" on:="" the="" target="" we="" aim="" to="" hit="" (50,="" 80="" or="" 100%="" emission="" abatement?)="" cost="" of="" technologies="" resource="" availability="" role="" of="" storage="" and="" demand="" side="" management="" where,="" when="" and="" how="" much="" of="" what="" technologies="" should="" be="" built?="" assumes="" a="" centrally="" run,="" well="" coordinated="" energy="" system…="" least="" cost="" system="" modelling="" demand="" has="" evolved="" to="" match="" the="" supply="" characteristics="" –="" cheap="" off="" peak="" power,="" deals="" for="" large="" continuous="" users,="" large="" industrial="" use.="" potential="" for="" efficiency,="" load="" shifting="" to="" change="" the="" shape="" to="" match="" a="" different="" mix="" is="" there.="" system="" cannot="" operate="" with="" baseload="" alone="" –="" requirement="" for="" peaking="" capacity="" to="" follow="" large="" swings="" in="" demand="" 35="" broad="" range="" of="" technologies="" available="" conventional="" technologies="" coal,="" gas,="" nuclear="" –="" reliable,="" but="" come="" with="" emissions="" +="" risk="" established="" renewables="" wind,="" solar="" pv,="" hydro="" –="" low="" carbon="" but="" intermittent/constrained="" emerging="" renewables="" concentrating="" solar="" thermal,="" wave,="" geothermal,="" biomass,="" biogas="" –="" expensive="" storage="" –="" phes="" and="" distributed="" batteries="" plus="" need="" to="" worry="" about="" transmission,="" security="" of="" supply,="" voltage="" and="" frequency="" stability="" things="" to="" consider="" build="" a="" simulation="" tool="" of="" the="" nem="" of="" medium="" complexity="" run="" an="" optimisation="" routine="" to="" find="" the="" least="" cost="" combination="" for="" a="" given="" emission="" reduction="" target.="" model="" considers="" hourly="" variability,="" discount="" rate="" (10%)="" and="" other="" scenarios="" (low="" discount,="" higher="" non-synchronous="" allowances…)="" considers="" the="" transition="" (not="" just="" a="" snap="" shot="" in="" 2050)="" approach="" modelling="" setup="" find="" the="" least="" cost="" total="" system="" cost="" for="" a="" combination="" of="" generation="" technologies="" for="" 100%="" emission="" abatement="" by="" 2050="" (other="" targets="" also="" possible)="" broad="" range="" of="" technologies="" considered="" (technology="" agnostic)="" coal="" (brown="" and="" black="" coal),="" gas="" (ocgt="" and="" ccgt)="" hydro,="" wind,="" solar="" concentrating="" solar="" thermal,="" carbon="" capture="" and="" storage="" (ccs),="" bioenergy,="" pumped="" hydro="" energy="" storage="" (phes)="" at="" same="" time="" consider="" transmission="" constraints="" and="" costs="" of="" additional="" transmission="" capacity="" hourly="" economic="" dispatch="" model,="" inertia="" constraints,="" ramp="" rates,="" unit="" commitment="" we="" run="" 8="" hours="" of="" storage="" for="" both="" phes="" and="" csp="" discount="" rate:="" 10%="" electrification="" of="" transport="" 1.4="" times="" demand="" increase="" by="" 2050="" cf="" to="" 2013="" build="" cost="" ($/kw)="" real="" 2017="" dollars="" (2018-2050)="" from="" csiro="" cost="" projections="" used="" in="" the="" aemo’s="" isp="" (integrated="" system="" plan)="" technology="" cost="" scenarios="" ="" csp="" ($kw)="" phes="" ($/kw)="" year="" 2018="" 2050="" 2018="" 2050="" slow="" 4434="" 3312="" 1860="" 1860="" neutral="" 4434="" 2190="" 1386="" 1077="" rapid="" 4434="" 1068="" 800="" 800="" run="" various="" combinations="" of="" slow,="" neutral="" and="" rapid="" for="" the="" two="">