Submit a six page paper (not including the title and reference pages) on one of the major topics...

Question

Submit a six page paper (not including the title and reference pages) on one of the major topics listed below. Incorporate at least
two related scholarly sources
(articles, books, etc):

Topic:

Time series forecasting

Sub- topics under time series forecasting:

-Long time trend

-Seasonal variation

-cyclinical variation

-random effects

-evaluating performance of forecasting techniques

The paper must (a) identify the main issues in the chosen area, (b) apply and reference new learning to the chosen area, (c) build upon class activities or incidents that facilitated learning and understanding, and (d) present specific current and/or future applications and relevance to the workplace. The emphasis of the paper should be on modeling application, outcomes, and new learning.

Must be six double-spaced pages in length and formatted according to APA style as outlined in the approved APA style guide.

Must include a cover page that includes:

- Title of paper
- Student’s name
- Course name and number
- Instructor’s name
- Date submitted

Must include an introductory paragraph with a succinct thesis statement.

Must address the topic of the paper with critical thought.

Must conclude with a restatement of the thesis and a conclusion paragraph.

Must use at least two resources.

Must use APA style as outlined in the approved APA style guide to document all sources.

Must include, on the final page, a Reference Page that is completed according to APA style as outlined in the approved APA style guide.

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Submit a six page paper (not including the title and reference pages) on one of the major topics listed below. Incorporate at least two related scholarly sources (articles, books, etc): Topic: Time series forecasting Sub- topics under time series forecasting: -Long time trend -Seasonal variation -cyclinical variation -random effects -evaluating performance of forecasting techniques The paper must (a) identify the main issues in the chosen area, (b) apply and reference new learning to the chosen area, (c) build upon class activities or incidents that facilitated learning and understanding, and (d) present specific current and/or future applications and relevance to the workplace. The emphasis of the paper should be on modeling application, outcomes, and new learning. Must be six double-spaced pages in length and formatted according to APA style as outlined in the approved APA style guide. Must include a cover page that includes: - Title of paper - Student’s name - Course name and number - Instructor’s name - Date submitted Must include an introductory paragraph with a succinct thesis statement. Must address the topic of the paper with critical thought. Must conclude with a restatement of the thesis and a conclusion paragraph. Must use at least two resources. Must use APA style as outlined in the approved APA style guide to document all sources. Must include, on the final page, a Reference Page that is completed according to APA style as outlined in the approved APA style guide.

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David · Accepted Answer

1 

Forecast for S&P Stock Market Index
2 
 
Introduction: 
The Standard & Poor's 500, better known as S&P 500 is a stock market index based on 500 
leading companies in the U.S. stock market. It differs in method of weighting from other U.S. 
stock market indices like the Dow Jones or the Nasdaq. It is one of the most commonly used 
equity indices and many consider it the best representation of the market for the U.S. economy. 
This study involves the recent trend of S&P 500 and to make a prediction of this stock market 
index in near future. We use the quarterly data of S&P 500 stock market index from 1984 to 
2010 for this analysis.  
Analysis: 
Before analysing the data, the S&P 500 stock market index is plotted against time in Fig 1 to see 
its’ behaviour over time. From the graph it can be seen that there is an upward trend visible. 
Also, the data exhibit a seasonal variation. However, there is no such cyclical variation exist in 
the data. These conclude that the series is not stationary. The autocorrelation function of the S&P 
500 series is given in Fig 2. This shows that the data is not stationary as the autocorrelation 
functions of different orders are dying out very slowly. The time series plot shows that a seasonal 
variation exist in the data. The seasonal difference of lag 4 has been done and the seasonally 
differenced series (Des S&P 500) is presented in Fig 3.  The autocorrelation function and partial 
autocorrelation function of the seasonally differenced series (Des S&P 500) are presented in Fig 
4. The ACF and PACF plot of the seasonally differenced series suggest that the order of the AP 
process should be 1 and the order of the MA process should be 2 as the ACF has significant 
spikes at lag 1 and 2 and the PACF has significant spike at lag 1. The order of D is 1 as the series 
is seasonally differenced.  
3 
 
Therefore, the appropriate ARIMA model is ARIMA(1,1,2) and the estimates of the model is 
presented in Table 1 and Table 2. The estimation result shows that all the coefficients of AR 
process and MA process are statistically significant. The LBQ of different lags shows that the 
residuals are not random. This suggests that the residuals have a specific pattern.  
First order difference is applied to the series to make it trend stationary. The differenced series is 
presented in Fig 5 which is now becomes stationary. The autocorrelation and partial 
autocorrelation function of the differenced series are presented in Fig 6. This shows that the 
differenced series is now become stationary as the ACF plot has no significant spike. However, 
the PACF plot has no significant spike. This suggests that the differenced series do not have any 
AR and MA process. Therefore, the order of the ARIMA(p,d,q) are 0,1 and 0 respectively. The 
seasonal (P,D,Q) components are P=1,

Submit a six page paper (not including the title and reference pages) on one of the major topics listed below. Incorporate at least two related scholarly sources (articles, books, etc): Topic: Time...

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