This extra credit forecasting assignment is available for the next two weeks. I have provided two "mystery" time series below. Each is a real world, quarterly time series, that has been transformed in...

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This extra credit forecasting assignment is available for the next two weeks. I have provided two "mystery" time series below. Each is a real world, quarterly time series, that has been transformed in some way so that you cannot discover (easily) its true identity. Your assignment is to create a 1-year (4-quarter) forecast for each series (e.g., for Series X this means providing a forecast for the four quarters of year15 i.e., 15.1, 15.2, 15.3, and 15.4). You can use any method or combination of methods that you feel is best. After the due date, I will reveal the actual values for the next 4 quarters and, for each series, 15 points extra credit will be awarded to the most accurate forecast based on MSE. (Other, less accurate forecasts will receive extra credit points based on their accuracy in comparison to the most accurate forecast).

To submit the extra credit assignment, upload a spreadsheet to the appropriate D2L dropbox containing your forecast as well as a description of how it was created (any transformation you made to the series, which observations were used in the calculation, what technique, etc.). You should provide enough detail that someone else could replicate your forecast exactly.

Answered Same DayOct 24, 2019

Answer To: This extra credit forecasting assignment is available for the next two weeks. I have provided two...

David answered on Dec 27 2019
68 Votes
I use three methods of forecasting namely moving average, exponential smoothing and trend (regression analysis). For moving average I use time span of 4 as data is measured on quarterly basis; that is I apply MA (4). For exponential smoothing I use a smoothing constant of 0.5. In trend analysis I calculate slope and intercept and use regression equation (Y= a + bX) for forecasting.
The forecast for series X using three methods of forecasting namely moving average, exponential smoothing and trend (regression analysis) is given in the table...
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