1. Patty is trying to determine which of two courses to take. If she takes the operations research course, she believes that she has a 10% chance of receiving A, a 40% chance for a B, and a 50% chance...

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1. Patty is trying to determine which of two courses to take. If she takes the operations research course, she believes that she has a 10% chance of receiving A, a 40% chance for a B, and a 50% chance for a C. If Patty takes a statistics course, she has a 70% chance for a B, a 25% for a C, and a 5% chance for a D. Patty is indifferent between L1 C L2 She is also indifferent between If Patty wants to take the course that maximizes the expected utility for her final grade, which course should she take? 3. The Peppi Battery Company is faced with a decision to commit its production resources to one of three strategies selected from a much larger number of options considered. Company management has classified the future demand for its products into four possible scenarios and assessed the profit associated with each combination of strategy and demand level. They also subjectively assessed the likelihood that each demand level would occur. Those payoff values (in thousands) and the associated probabilities are given in the following table. Determine the optimum strategy using each of the four methods of making a decision. D1 D2 D3 D4 Strategy 1 Level Production 200 300 160 0 Strategy 2 Chase Demand using Overtime 350 0 0 50 Strategy 3 Partial second shift 0 70 550 200 Probability 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.10


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A DA .25 .75 Patty is trying to determine which of two courses to take. If she takes the operations research course, she believes that she has a 10% chance of receiving A, a 40% chance for a B, and a 50% chance for a C. If Patty takes a statistics course, she has a 70% chance for a B, a 25% for a C, and a 5% chance for a D. Patty is indifferent between 1 L1 C L2 L43 A DA .70 .30 She is also indifferent between L3 B 1 If Patty wants to take the course that maximizes the expected utility for her final grade, which course should she take? 3. The Peppi Battery Company is faced with a decision to commit its production resources to one of three strategies selected from a much larger number of options considered. Company management has classified the future demand for its products into four possible scenarios and assessed the profit associated with each combination of strategy and demand level. They also subjectively assessed the likelihood that each demand level would occur. Those payoff values (in thousands) and the associated probabilities are given in the following table. Determine the optimum strategy using each of the four methods of making a decision. D1D2D3D4Strategy 1 Level Production2003001600Strategy 2 Chase Demand using Overtime3500050Strategy 3 Partial second shift070550200Probability 0.20.40.30.10



Answered Same DayDec 22, 2021

Answer To: 1. Patty is trying to determine which of two courses to take. If she takes the operations research...

Robert answered on Dec 22 2021
115 Votes
Eastern Mediterranean University
1. Patty is trying to determine which of two courses to take. If she takes the operations research course, she bel
ieves that she has a 10% chance of receiving A, a 40% chance for a B, and a 50% chance for a C. If Patty takes a statistics course, she has a 70% chance for a B, a 25% for a C, and a 5% chance for a D. Patty is indifferent between

L1 C L2
She is also indifferent between
If Patty wants to take the course that maximizes the expected utility for her final grade, which course should she take?
We assume that the preferences of Patricia are such that she prefers grade A to B, B to C and C to D. Let U(A), U(B), U(C) and U(D) be the utility function showing utility derived from grades A,B,C and D respectively. Then,
U(A)>U(B)>U(C)>U(D)
Patty is indifferent between L1 and L2, it means
U(C)=0.25U(A)+0.75U(D)
And, U(B) = 0.7U(A) + U(D)
If she takes operations research probability of D is zero and thus no utility from D.
So, U(C) = 0.25U(A) and U(B)=0.7U(A)
Expected utility of a function is given by probability of that outcome*utility obtained from the outcome. Therefore,
The expected utility from C and B are:
Expected utility fromC = 0.5*0.25*U(A)=U(A)/8
Expected utility fromB = 0.4*0.7*U(A)=7U(A)/25
Thus we can see expected utility from B is greater than C.
If she takes statistics...
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