Homework Assignment
- Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.
AnswerTrue
False
- The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
AnswerTrue
False
- A company markets educational software products, and is ready to place three new products on the market. Past experience has shown that for this particular software, the chance of "success" is 80%. Assume that the probability of success is independent for each product. What is the probability that exactly 1 of the 3 products is successful?
Answer
- Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?
Answer
3.5 minutes |
5.75 minutes |
6.36 minutes |
9.2 minutes |
- The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.
Answer
expected value |
expected opportunity loss |
expected value of perfect information |
none of the above |
- In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.
Answer
sampling from |
running |
integrating |
implementing |
- Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine
Answer
simulation numbers |
data sets |
random number ranges |
all of the above |
- __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
Answer
Cumulative error |
MAD |
MAPD |
Average error |
- In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.
Answer
- Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Answer
Trend only |
Trend plus seasonal |
Seasonal only |
None of the above |
- A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Answer
- A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Answer
- Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
Year Demand Forecast
Answer
- The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
Month |
Actual Demand |
March |
20 |
April |
25 |
May |
40 |
June |
35 |
July |
30 |
August |
45 |
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal. Answer
- The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.
Month |
Actual Demand |
March |
20 |
April |
25 |
May |
40 |
June |
35 |
July |
30 |
August |
45 |
Use exponential smoothing with a = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.
Answer
Question 16 A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval. AnswerTrue
False
Question 17
An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.
The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.
Answer
Question 18
Consider the following decision tree.
What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “$” in your answer.
Answer
5 points
Question 19
The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.
If he is conservative, how many new workers will he hire?
Answer
Question 20
This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.
Answer
Question 21
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.
Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.
Answer
Question 22
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.
Answer
5 points
Question 23
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.
Answer