Homework Assignment Question 1 Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters. AnswerTrue False 5 points Question 2 An inspector correctly identifies defective products...

Homework Assignment

Question 1
Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
AnswerTrue
False
5 points
Question 2
An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.
AnswerTrue
False
5 points
Question 3
A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
AnswerTrue
False
5 points
Question 4
A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
AnswerTrue
False
5 points
Question 5
Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.
AnswerTrue
False
5 points
Question 6
A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.
AnswerTrue
False
5 points
Question 7
Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
AnswerTrue
False
5 points
Question 8
Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.
AnswerTrue
False
5 points
Question 9
In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.
Answer

marginal

conditional

binomial

revised

5 points
Question 10
__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.
Answer

Standard deviation

Range

The z-score (the standard score)

All of the above

5 points
Question 11
The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.
Answer

expected opportunity loss

expected value

expected value of perfect information

none of the above

5 points
Question 12
Consider the following frequency of demand:


If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be
Answer

1

2

3

4

5 points
Question 13
Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.

No. of breakdowns per week	Probability	Cumulative probability
0	.10	.10
1	.25	.35
2	.36	.71
3	.22	.93
4	.07	1.00

What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?
Answer

.10

.25

.35

.71

5 points
Question 14
Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.
Answer

physical / physical

physical / mathematical

mathematical / physical

mathematical / mathematical

5 points
Question 15
Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.
Answer

a limited number of possible outcomes

a uniform distribution

a detectable pattern

a detectable run of certain numbers

5 points
Question 16
Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?
Answer

.01

.10

.50

.90

5 points
Question 17
__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Answer

Regression

Qualitative

Time series

all of the above

5 points
Question 18
__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.
Answer

Linear trend

Linear regression

Forecast demand

Linear equation

5 points
Question 19
__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.
Answer

Forecast mistake

Forecast error

MAD

Forecast accuracy

5 points
Question 20
Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.
Answer

dependent, dependent

independent, dependent

dependent, independent

independent, independent

5 points
Question 21
__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.
Answer

Correlation

Linear regression

Coefficient of determination

Regression

5 points
Question 22
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:


If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with a = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.
Answer

273

277

267.8

286.2

5 points
Question 23
__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Answer

Qualitative methods

Regression

Time series

Quantitative methods

5 points
Question 24
rob
14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:

Yield, bushels per acre	Probability
350	.10
400	.18
450	.50
500	.22

The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.
What is the expected yield of the crop?
Answer

425

442

440

475

5 points
Question 25
An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.


The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.
Answer
5 points
Question 26
A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Answer
5 points
Question 27
An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.

xi	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
p(xi)	.10	.15	.18	.20	.20	.10	.07

What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.
Answer
5 points
Question 28
The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.


Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.
Answer
5 points
Question 29
Consider the following decision tree.


What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “$” in your answer.
Answer
5 points
Question 30
The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.


If he is conservative, how many new workers will he hire?
Answer
5 points
Question 31
Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40, 86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand.

Demand	Random Number Ranges
5	00-14
6	15-44
7	45-69
8	70-84
9	85-99

Answer
5 points
Question 32
This is the data from the last 4 weeks:


Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.
Answer
5 points
Question 33
Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.

Year	Sales
2001	2
2002	4
2003	10
2004	8
2005	14
2006	18
2007	17
2008	20

Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.
Answer
5 points
Question 34
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.


Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.
Answer
5 points
Question 35
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :

Year	Sales	Forecast
2003	7	9
2004	12	10
2005	14	15
2006	20	22
2007	16	18
2008	25	21

Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Answer
5 points
Question 36
Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.


What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.
Answer
5 points
Question 37
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.
Answer
5 points
Question 38
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:


Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.
Answer
5 points
Question 39
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:


Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.
Answer
5 points
Question 40
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.
Answer
5 points