I have requested the same homework to be done please make sure that is one doesn't look very similar...

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I have requested the same homework to be done please make sure that is one doesn't look very similar to this order #53858because my friend will submit to the same professor
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4/10/2020 Elective Module A: Analytic Confidence: SRA 311, Section 002: Risk Analysis, SP20 Howerton WC https://psu.instructure.com/courses/2043139/pages/elective-module-a-analytic-confidence?module_item_id=28203353 1/2 Elective Module A: Analytic Con�dence For this module, you are asked to consider the role of analytic confidence in risk and intelligence analysis. Your response to this module should be packaged as a single PDF file that addresses the questions below. Resources for this module include the following: PAPER: Appropriate Factors to Consider When Assessing Analytic Confidence in Intelligence Analysis (https://psu.instructure.com/courses/2043139/files/105770587/download? wrap=1) PAPER: Intelligence Analysis and Judgmental Calibration (https://psu.instructure.com/courses/2043139/files/105770583/download?wrap=1) GAME: "Credence." (http://acritch.com/credence-game/) WEBSITE: Predictionbook.com (http://predictionbook.com/) - You need to create an account to use this site. IMAGE: Types of Analysts Answer the following questions based on your review of the above resources: 1. What is analytic confidence and what role does analytic confidence play in risk analysis? 2. What factors are considered to be the appropriate ones for assessing analytic confidence? https://psu.instructure.com/courses/2043139/files/105770587/download?wrap=1 https://psu.instructure.com/courses/2043139/files/105770583/download?wrap=1 http://acritch.com/credence-game/ http://predictionbook.com/ 4/10/2020 Elective Module A: Analytic Confidence: SRA 311, Section 002: Risk Analysis, SP20 Howerton WC https://psu.instructure.com/courses/2043139/pages/elective-module-a-analytic-confidence?module_item_id=28203353 2/2 3. What is judgmental calibration? For each of the analysts describe in the Types of Analysts image, label their analytic performance as calibrated, overconfident, underconfident, or otherwise. Explain why you assigned each label. 4. Play Credence a few times. Explain the rationale for such a game. Also, explain how the game works, how it provides you with feedback, etc. What do the graphs mean? Take a screen shot of the game. 5. Review the Predictionbook.com website. As a tool, what is this site supposed to do and how does it work? Do you think it will work? Why or why not?

elective-module-a-analytic-confidence-sra-311-section-002-risk-analysis-sp20-howerton-wc-4ilezzaf.pdf

Monali · Accepted Answer

1. What is analytic confidence and what role does analytic confidence play in risk analysis? 
Risk and uncertainty are two sides of the same coin. In layman language, it is true to say that risk can be measured while uncertainty is mostly unaccounted. For measurement of risk probabilities are used. However, probabilities are required to be corroborated with judged probability %. In other words, analytic confidence is judged probability % in forecast estimate. Needless to say, forecast is statistically established with risk assessment and therefore, analytic confidence is tool for measurement of risk. With audit / inspection / survey, etc. we collect verification to question. In hindsight, comparison with analytic confidence will provide uncertainties that were not accounted for. Another point is that analytic confidence is not random or arbitrary approach, instead it is substantiated with statistical techniques.   
 
2. What factors are considered to be the appropriate ones for assessing analytic confidence? 
Decision making in recent times of COVID-19 crisis, in particular political decision making, is governing course of crisis. With human lives at stake, analytic confidence rating % gives scope of discriminating such forecasted probabilities. Following are factors that influence analyst confidence in today’s evolving situation; 
Line of treatment as suggested by “specialist” is helping set decision making along with “correctness of assumptions”, “reliability” of resource deployed and addressing “conflict” of fake news.  
“Horizon” of current COVID-19 situation is testing quick decision making. 
These never seen before times has created scope of “unique intricacy” in dealing with pandemic. This calls for “qualitative input” & “intelligence” in decision making. 
With no model, technique, process, etc. historical “methods” deployed and taking clue from “inter connectedness” is driving decision making.  
3. What is judgmental calibration? For each of the analysts describe in the Types of Analysts image, label their analytic performance as calibrated, overconfident,

4/10/2020 Elective Module A: Analytic Confidence: SRA 311, Section 002: Risk Analysis, SP20 Howerton WC...

Answer To: 4/10/2020 Elective Module A: Analytic Confidence: SRA 311, Section 002: Risk Analysis, SP20 Howerton...

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