5 questions with subparts
please complete Problems 5-1, 5-19, 5-25, 5-29, and 5-37, 5 PROBLEMS WITH SUBPARTS 5-1 1 Describe briefly the steps used to develop a forecasting system. 5-17 Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table. Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast sales. Then estimate demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1. Which method do you think is best? 5-17 Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table. Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast sales. Then estimate demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1. Which method do you think is best? Year Demand for Fertilizer (1,000s of Ba gs) 1 4 2 6 3 4 4 5 5 10 6 8 7 7 8 9 9 12 10 14 1115 5-18 Develop a trend line for the demand for fertilizer in Problem 5-17, using any computer software. 5-19 In Problems 5-17 and 5-18, three different forecasts were developed for the demand for fertilizer. These three forecasts are a 3-year moving average, a weighted moving average, and a trend line. Which one would you use? Explain your answer. 5-21 Sales of Cool-Man air conditioners have grown steadily during the past 5 years: Year Sales 1 450 2 495 3 518 4 563 5 584 6 ? The sales manager had predicted, before the business started, that year 1’s sales would be 410 air conditioners. Using exponential smoothing with a weight of a = 0.30, develop forecasts for years 2 through 6. 5-25 Using the trend projection method, develop a forecasting model for the sales of Cool-Man air conditioners (see Problem 5-21). 5-29 Emergency calls to Winter Park, Florida’s 911 system, for the past 24 weeks are as follows: Week Calls Week Calls Week Calls 1 50 9 35 17 55 2 35 10 20 18 40 3 25 11 15 19 35 440 1240 20 60 545 13 55 2175 6 35 14 35 22 50 7201525 2340 830 1655 24 65 (a) Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast of calls for each week. Assume an initial forecast of 50 calls in the first week and use a = 0.1. What is the forecast for the 25th week? (b) Reforecast each period using a = 0.6. (c) Actual calls during the 25th week were 85. Which smoothing constant provides a superior forecast? 5-37 Management of Davis’s Department Store has used time-series extrapolation to forecast retail sales for the next four quarters. The sales estimates are $100,000, $120,000, $140,000, and $160,000 for the respective quarters before adjusting for seasonality. Seasonal indices for the four quarters have been found to be 1.30, 0.90, 0.70, and 1.10, respectively. Compute a seasonalized or adjusted sales forecast.